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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 9501–9550 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.333179545242537number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.05981667926711number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.19717452333990915number |
| $["games"][222]["gameId"] | 2026_15_DET_MINstring |
| $["games"][222]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][222]["gameday"] | 2026-12-20string |
| $["games"][222]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -14.440402724445068number |
| $["games"][222]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 21.626824272335707number |
| $["games"][222]["homeTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][222]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6098364093016881number |
| $["games"][222]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-21T01:20:00Zstring |
| $["games"][222]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][222]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][222]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.651534672772705number |
| $["games"][222]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.365152297294266number |
| $["games"][222]["week"] | 15number |
| $["games"][223]["awayTeam"] | NEstring |
| $["games"][223]["eloProbability"] | 0.5384179809981116number |
| $["games"][223]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.595848704336696number |
| $["games"][223]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -1.8011935877420586number |
| $["games"][223]["expectedHomeScore"] | 19.79465511659464number |
| $["games"][223]["expectedTotal"] | 41.390503820931336number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.046067977272376number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 38.733474962654654number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 11number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -28.25173092788532number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 8number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -6.540692203248725number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -3number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -4.494624225976349number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 40.471273181670554number |
| $["games"][223]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.3964132920272839number |
| $["games"][223]["gameId"] | 2026_15_NE_KCstring |
| $["games"][223]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][223]["gameday"] | 2026-12-21string |
| $["games"][223]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -19.834807086132447number |
| $["games"][223]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 16.23241991064833number |
| $["games"][223]["homeTeam"] | KCstring |
| $["games"][223]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.46397515639222814number |
| $["games"][223]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-22T01:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][223]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][223]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][223]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.033695008670556number |
| $["games"][223]["totalInterval80"][1] | 57.74731263319212number |
| $["games"][223]["week"] | 15number |
| $["games"][224]["awayTeam"] | HOUstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.