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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 9901–9950 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][234]["week"] | 16number |
| $["games"][235]["awayTeam"] | WASstring |
| $["games"][235]["eloProbability"] | 0.6545120151927203number |
| $["games"][235]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.338541342249187number |
| $["games"][235]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 6.376366422739823number |
| $["games"][235]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.714907764989007number |
| $["games"][235]["expectedTotal"] | 43.053449107238194number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -7.716140287522826number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.65333835787344number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 55.99387007880364number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 7.093880459681154number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -0.622259827841674number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 41.348896961866245number |
| $["games"][235]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.26350429002773706number |
| $["games"][235]["gameId"] | 2026_16_WAS_MINstring |
| $["games"][235]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][235]["gameday"] | 2026-12-27string |
| $["games"][235]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -11.657247075650565number |
| $["games"][235]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 24.40997992113021number |
| $["games"][235]["homeTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][235]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7073243895994541number |
| $["games"][235]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-27T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][235]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][235]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][235]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.696640294977417number |
| $["games"][235]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.410257919498974number |
| $["games"][235]["week"] | 16number |
| $["games"][236]["awayTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][236]["eloProbability"] | 0.588433716229409number |
| $["games"][236]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.503270559544number |
| $["games"][236]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.6225327544288748number |
| $["games"][236]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.12580331397287number |
| $["games"][236]["expectedTotal"] | 42.62907387351687number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -3.425135367027682number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 50.739814580783275number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 7.103103881227298number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -0.1582395829830352number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][236]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.583374950010711number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.