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NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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272 matches · 21–40 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_02_GB_NYJ
away Team GB
elo Probability 0.4386055130171838
expected Away Score 24.507607790965633
expected Home Margin -4.990807195446914
expected Home Score 19.51680059551872
expected Total 44.02440838648435 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.415090915762693,
"allowedSum": 53.5928179398865,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -97.87762289852616,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -10.352891518014031,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -4.937800602251343,
"scoringSum": 37.5979626005016,
"winRateDifference": -0.08171384047153352
}
game Id 2026_02_GB_NYJ
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-23.0244206938373,
13.042806302943474
]
home Team NYJ
home Win Probability 0.32711927080593706
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.667599574223573,
60.381217198745134
]
week 2 2026_02_MIN_CHI
away Team MIN
elo Probability 0.5434010881782091
expected Away Score 21.28305424246751
expected Home Margin 1.1665825199895687
expected Home Score 22.44963676245708
expected Total 43.7326910049246 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.623515103411819,
"allowedSum": 39.56071317376244,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -24.765747344910324,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -2.232315656210896,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.391199447200922,
"scoringSum": 44.11783658122549,
"winRateDifference": -0.1694988400082324
}
game Id 2026_02_MIN_CHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.86703097840082,
19.200196018379955
]
home Team CHI
home Win Probability 0.5526676962337865
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.375882192663816,
60.08949981718538
]
week 2 2026_02_NO_BAL
away Team NO
elo Probability 0.6709867976890446
expected Away Score 20.066939124160783
expected Home Margin 5.077930689573341
expected Home Score 25.14486981373413
expected Total 45.211808937894915 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.4436977584937445,
"allowedSum": 42.14031980739915,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 68.80025994371272,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.6337729648285686,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.0774707233223104,
"scoringSum": 46.08935475893634,
"winRateDifference": -0.05007634090867713
}
game Id 2026_02_NO_BAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.955682808817048,
23.11154418796373
]
home Team BAL
home Win Probability 0.6791195110017261
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.855000125634135,
61.568617750155695
]
week 2 2026_02_PHI_TEN
away Team PHI
elo Probability 0.36574449222757865
expected Away Score 24.56567146747158
expected Home Margin -5.337403053047581
expected Home Score 19.228268414424
expected Total 43.79393988189558 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 7.436961056332322,
"allowedSum": 46.72798889147863,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -150.63458099132822,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -8.700020991464378,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.263059935132059,
"scoringSum": 40.6013049818595,
"winRateDifference": -0.14843173526949976
}
game Id 2026_02_PHI_TEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-23.371016551437968,
12.696210445342809
]
home Team TEN
home Win Probability 0.3183687528020991
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.4371310696348,
60.15074869415636
]
week 2 2026_02_PIT_NE
away Team PIT
elo Probability 0.6091192421685344
expected Away Score 18.589901501281744
expected Home Margin 6.133758831498968
expected Home Score 24.72366033278071
expected Total 43.313561834062455 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.31441358939567,
"allowedSum": 41.00182057477795,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 22.063211005961875,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 11,
"marginDifference": 6.955934068735272,
"restDifference": 4,
"scoringDifference": 2.641520479339608,
"scoringSum": 42.3243769283073,
"winRateDifference": 0.1625907529245858
}
game Id 2026_02_PIT_NE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.89985466689142,
24.167372329889353
]
home Team NE
home Win Probability 0.696846840843828
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.95675302180167,
59.670370646323235
]
week 2 2026_02_JAX_DEN
away Team JAX
elo Probability 0.6334695526942754
expected Away Score 22.28378758497425
expected Home Margin 1.1671933585318734
expected Home Score 23.450980943506124
expected Total 45.73476852848037 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.5036944838688129,
"allowedSum": 39.02482220378285,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 40.04627550680857,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": -5.841995536275463,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": -6.345690020144271,
"scoringSum": 49.27970153502196,
"winRateDifference": -0.01634914404541543
}
game Id 2026_02_JAX_DEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.866420139858516,
19.20080685692226
]
home Team DEN
home Win Probability 0.5442450676053421
kickoff 2026-09-20T20:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.377959716219593,
62.09157734074115
]
week 2 2026_02_LV_LAC
away Team LV
elo Probability 0.7192074996332564
expected Away Score 16.38663211629654
expected Home Margin 7.322049990038153
expected Home Score 23.70868210633469
expected Total 40.09531422263123 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.10057345187856,
"allowedSum": 43.21410576187703,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 108.38748131551642,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 5.683746741525814,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.583173289647256,
"scoringSum": 33.75466843635328,
"winRateDifference": 0.12903690425861392
}
game Id 2026_02_LV_LAC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-10.711563508352237,
25.35566348842854
]
home Team LAC
home Win Probability 0.7490628429552199
kickoff 2026-09-20T20:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
23.73850541037045,
56.45212303489201
]
week 2 2026_02_MIA_SF
away Team MIA
elo Probability 0.6540658123637072
expected Away Score 20.047008625144095
expected Home Margin 5.145489209510583
expected Home Score 25.192497834654674
expected Total 45.23950645979877 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.3738914221598044,
"allowedSum": 49.2859004140484,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 55.65118610137233,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 2.8390601061437213,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 2.465168683983922,
"scoringSum": 42.38064073851095,
"winRateDifference": 0.0989482728428494
}
game Id 2026_02_MIA_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.888124288879805,
23.17910270790097
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.6680023661724723
kickoff 2026-09-20T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.882697647537988,
61.59631527205955
]
week 2 2026_02_SEA_ARI
away Team SEA
elo Probability 0.3495971826946359
expected Away Score 28.29301348058165
expected Home Margin -10.44965425658449
expected Home Score 17.84335922399716
expected Total 46.13637270457881 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 12.077938615424426,
"allowedSum": 47.04330705457852,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 11,
"eloDifference": -162.84579586974974,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -18.753137666661132,
"restDifference": -4,
"scoringDifference": -6.6751990512367065,
"scoringSum": 47.113911844493174,
"winRateDifference": -0.609299014706016
}
game Id 2026_02_SEA_ARI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-28.483267754974875,
7.583959241805898
]
home Team ARI
home Win Probability 0.19581943455678133
kickoff 2026-09-20T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.77956389231803,
62.49318151683959
]
week 2 2026_02_WAS_DAL
away Team WAS
elo Probability 0.5981304071658563
expected Away Score 22.32682408809252
expected Home Margin 2.391040042586353
expected Home Score 24.717864130678873
expected Total 47.04468821877139 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.0346484635702176,
"allowedSum": 52.40412710896649,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 14.084293738154884,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -0.20393582153763168,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.8307126420325837,
"scoringSum": 44.8018694317405,
"winRateDifference": 0.02166121886354916
}
game Id 2026_02_WAS_DAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.642573455804037,
20.424653540976745
]
home Team DAL
home Win Probability 0.5774790301589027
kickoff 2026-09-20T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.68787940651061,
63.40149703103217
]
week 2 2026_02_IND_KC
away Team IND
elo Probability 0.6229733313955773
expected Away Score 20.715129138393113
expected Home Margin 2.796159272341329
expected Home Score 23.51128841073444
expected Total 44.226417549127554 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -6.566037744506762,
"allowedSum": 47.3455806844338,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 32.238953939314115,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 1.3112501349591703,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": -5.254787609547584,
"scoringSum": 41.23143656524179,
"winRateDifference": -0.001873384109130294
}
game Id 2026_02_IND_KC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.237454226049058,
20.829772770731715
]
home Team KC
home Win Probability 0.5976939466916483
kickoff 2026-09-21T00:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.869608736866773,
60.583226361388334
]
week 2 2026_02_NYG_LA
away Team NYG
elo Probability 0.740091270169767
expected Away Score 20.58870114102306
expected Home Margin 7.111563197862695
expected Home Score 27.700264338885752
expected Total 48.28896547990881 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.9932762402243789,
"allowedSum": 46.318519189559694,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 8,
"eloDifference": 126.78576584579218,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 11,
"marginDifference": 1.5095729351433569,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 3.502849175367732,
"scoringSum": 51.22101351353068,
"winRateDifference": 0.13835371393007778
}
game Id 2026_02_NYG_LA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-21 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-10.922050300527692,
25.14517669625308
]
home Team LAR
home Win Probability 0.7254197261242206
kickoff 2026-09-22T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.93215666764803,
64.64577429216959
]
week 2 2026_03_ATL_GB
away Team ATL
elo Probability 0.6249671524410583
expected Away Score 21.66135857941353
expected Home Margin 2.1760827062246024
expected Home Score 23.837441285638135
expected Total 45.498799865051666 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.172083562087245,
"allowedSum": 47.00564346203656,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": 33.71515379648281,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": -2.2215402678201768,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.0494567057329327,
"scoringSum": 43.58521990848587,
"winRateDifference": -0.2839207675826403
}
game Id 2026_03_ATL_GB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-24 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.857530792165786,
20.20969620461499
]
home Team GB
home Win Probability 0.5874530847423287
kickoff 2026-09-25T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.141991052790885,
61.855608677312446
]
week 3 2026_03_CAR_CLE
away Team CAR
elo Probability 0.5645182307375761
expected Away Score 20.38246212680434
expected Home Margin 1.8573075127395355
expected Home Score 22.23976963954388
expected Total 42.62223176634822 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.5324450235552582,
"allowedSum": 44.40293246295725,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -9.916802781636306,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.32164505833896984,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.2107999652162853,
"scoringSum": 39.04970429371218,
"winRateDifference": 0.10281104651731054
}
game Id 2026_03_CAR_CLE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.176305985650853,
19.89092101112992
]
home Team CLE
home Win Probability 0.5641051189687598
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.26542295408744,
58.979040578609
]
week 3 2026_03_CIN_PIT
away Team CIN
elo Probability 0.6291871851464755
expected Away Score 22.02641547878445
expected Home Margin 1.3999607499556956
expected Home Score 23.426376228740143
expected Total 45.4527917075246 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.7187899896128407,
"allowedSum": 46.035024153786466,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 36.85005367679514,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.442711271704528,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -5.161501261317369,
"scoringSum": 44.84435771028506,
"winRateDifference": 0.06623756542151488
}
game Id 2026_03_CIN_PIT
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.63365274843469,
19.433574248346083
]
home Team PIT
home Win Probability 0.5461529718568394
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.095982895263816,
61.80960051978538
]
week 3 2026_03_HOU_IND
away Team HOU
elo Probability 0.48229077117034264
expected Away Score 24.745915395253476
expected Home Margin -2.679009575088316
expected Home Score 22.06690582016516
expected Total 46.81282121541864 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 6.748676601976793,
"allowedSum": 47.16294182696376,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -67.31078212226976,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -7.605009874681621,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.8563332727048305,
"scoringSum": 47.34255744749421,
"winRateDifference": -0.3976633088440285
}
game Id 2026_03_HOU_IND
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.712623073478703,
15.354603923302072
]
home Team IND
home Win Probability 0.412443436732176
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.456012403157857,
63.16963002767942
]
week 3 2026_03_KC_MIA
away Team KC
elo Probability 0.5358375382698177
expected Away Score 20.815149895296756
expected Home Margin 0.7437279810670301
expected Home Score 21.558877876363788
expected Total 42.37402777166054 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.440124448140583,
"allowedSum": 45.21966738806762,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -30.0547519242607,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -2.4707128987241633,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.9694115494164104,
"scoringSum": 37.94606050511062,
"winRateDifference": 0.19983393926061216
}
game Id 2026_03_KC_MIA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.289885517323356,
18.77734147945742
]
home Team MIA
home Win Probability 0.5247298280667388
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.017218959399763,
58.73083658392133
]
week 3 2026_03_LAC_BUF
away Team LAC
elo Probability 0.6374873203260163
expected Away Score 18.80907803011922
expected Home Margin 6.518619899782244
expected Home Score 25.327697929901465
expected Total 44.136775960020685 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.801014624419235,
"allowedSum": 41.9145469344177,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 43.05933978702592,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 5.4426324866823155,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 8.243647111101549,
"scoringSum": 43.581488837102086,
"winRateDifference": 0.1280086976389248
}
game Id 2026_03_LAC_BUF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.514993598608145,
24.552233398172632
]
home Team BUF
home Win Probability 0.7140797708380909
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.779967147759905,
60.493584772281466
]
week 3 2026_03_NE_JAX
away Team NE
elo Probability 0.5470225125165694
expected Away Score 21.254955111579665
expected Home Margin 3.6614694090607416
expected Home Score 24.91642452064041
expected Total 46.171379632220074 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.420554851134689,
"allowedSum": 38.10796183651697,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -22.22856744917908,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 3.9091922226249824,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 5.329747073759663,
"scoringSum": 50.29564448140657,
"winRateDifference": -0.014110264774721548
}
game Id 2026_03_NE_JAX
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.372144089329646,
21.69508290745113
]
home Team JAX
home Win Probability 0.6244418961460027
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.814570819959293,
62.528188444480854
]
week 3 2026_03_NYJ_DET
away Team NYJ
elo Probability 0.7353896810150858
expected Away Score 17.411192293478713
expected Home Margin 10.514469355834777
expected Home Score 27.92566164931349
expected Total 45.3368539427922 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.433029502290747,
"allowedSum": 53.57487935335844,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 122.56430209300538,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 12.79944661542044,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 7.366417113129696,
"scoringSum": 40.026579111379945,
"winRateDifference": 0.20610366266350433
}
game Id 2026_03_NYJ_DET
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-7.5191441425556125,
28.548082854225164
]
home Team DET
home Win Probability 0.8099435608703797
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.980045130531423,
61.69366275505298
]
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