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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 10601–10650 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][256]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][256]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][256]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.38788517411598number |
| $["games"][256]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.10150279863754number |
| $["games"][256]["week"] | 18number |
| $["games"][257]["awayTeam"] | CHIstring |
| $["games"][257]["eloProbability"] | 0.6128169150194281number |
| $["games"][257]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.97536739477417number |
| $["games"][257]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.7541606727462433number |
| $["games"][257]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.729528067520416number |
| $["games"][257]["expectedTotal"] | 43.70489546229459number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -5.623515103411819number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 39.56071317376244number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 24.765747344910324number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 2.232315656210896number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.391199447200922number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.11783658122549number |
| $["games"][257]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.1694988400082324number |
| $["games"][257]["gameId"] | 2026_18_CHI_MINstring |
| $["games"][257]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][257]["gameday"] | 2027-01-10string |
| $["games"][257]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -14.279452825644144number |
| $["games"][257]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 21.787774171136633number |
| $["games"][257]["homeTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][257]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.62576061197629number |
| $["games"][257]["kickoff"] | 2027-01-10T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][257]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][257]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][257]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.348086650033807number |
| $["games"][257]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.06170427455537number |
| $["games"][257]["week"] | 18number |
| $["games"][258]["awayTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][258]["eloProbability"] | 0.6283222340839798number |
| $["games"][258]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.53782496959372number |
| $["games"][258]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.508640524710714number |
| $["games"][258]["expectedHomeScore"] | 25.04646549430443number |
| $["games"][258]["expectedTotal"] | 44.58429046389815number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.4416633519986526number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 44.312150791400654number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 36.2063384473804number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
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JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.