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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 10651–10700 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 4.14181396955462number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 6.583477321553268number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.42238165004916number |
| $["games"][258]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.029976835526921652number |
| $["games"][258]["gameId"] | 2026_18_CLE_CINstring |
| $["games"][258]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][258]["gameday"] | 2027-01-10string |
| $["games"][258]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.524972973679674number |
| $["games"][258]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.5422540231011number |
| $["games"][258]["homeTeam"] | CINstring |
| $["games"][258]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6866730064163968number |
| $["games"][258]["kickoff"] | 2027-01-10T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][258]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][258]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][258]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.22748165163737number |
| $["games"][258]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.94109927615893number |
| $["games"][258]["week"] | 18number |
| $["games"][259]["awayTeam"] | DALstring |
| $["games"][259]["eloProbability"] | 0.55861173122964number |
| $["games"][259]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.887189165129485number |
| $["games"][259]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.2069104179033294number |
| $["games"][259]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.094099583032815number |
| $["games"][259]["expectedTotal"] | 46.9812887481623number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -3.0346484635702176number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 52.40412710896649number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -14.084293738154884number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 0.20393582153763168number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.8307126420325837number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.8018694317405number |
| $["games"][259]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.02166121886354916number |
| $["games"][259]["gameId"] | 2026_18_DAL_WASstring |
| $["games"][259]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][259]["gameday"] | 2027-01-10string |
| $["games"][259]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.826703080487057number |
| $["games"][259]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.24052391629372number |
| $["games"][259]["homeTeam"] | WASstring |
| $["games"][259]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5313668360471719number |
| $["games"][259]["kickoff"] | 2027-01-10T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][259]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][259]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][259]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.62447993590152number |
| $["games"][259]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.33809756042308number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.