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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 11051–11100 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][270]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.25750819533846number |
| $["games"][270]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.97112581986002number |
| $["games"][270]["week"] | 18number |
| $["games"][271]["awayTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][271]["eloProbability"] | 0.7541262072390068number |
| $["games"][271]["expectedAwayScore"] | 17.64168111324005number |
| $["games"][271]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 10.235094953398834number |
| $["games"][271]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.87677606663889number |
| $["games"][271]["expectedTotal"] | 45.518457179878936number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -6.875342361411992number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.28960758639896number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 139.69271720561142number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 11.305665198147782number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -1number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 4.430322836735797number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.76856788346324number |
| $["games"][271]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.3479778157721514number |
| $["games"][271]["gameId"] | 2026_18_TEN_HOUstring |
| $["games"][271]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][271]["gameday"] | 2027-01-10string |
| $["games"][271]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -7.798518544991554number |
| $["games"][271]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 28.268708451789223number |
| $["games"][271]["homeTeam"] | HOUstring |
| $["games"][271]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.8056662581765378number |
| $["games"][271]["kickoff"] | 2027-01-10T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][271]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][271]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][271]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.161648367618156number |
| $["games"][271]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.87526599213972number |
| $["games"][271]["week"] | 18number |
| $["limitations"][0] | No claim of best-in-market performance or public model promotion.string |
| $["limitations"][1] | Historical results and odds may have been corrected after the historical cutoff; capture hashes do not establish historical availability.string |
| $["limitations"][2] | Market odds are retrospective benchmarks only and never enter model features.string |
| $["limitations"][3] | Same-week results cannot inform other games in that week, including later kickoff games.string |
| $["limitations"][4] | No injury, starting quarterback, player availability, roster turnover or live prediction-market features in this game model.string |
| $["limitations"][5] | Intervals transfer 2023 residuals to later seasons and do not guarantee conditional or future coverage.string |
| $["limitations"][6] | Season-week bootstrap assumes blocks independent; between-week and between-season dependence can understate uncertainty.string |
| $["limitations"][7] | Season simulations assume independent decisive outcomes and fixed team strength; no playoff or tie-breaker simulation.string |
| $["limitations"][8] | All weeks in this preseason snapshot use decayed 2025 form and zero current-season completed-game counts. Late-season feature combinations differ from in-season backtests; they are preseason scenarios until refreshed from newly completed games.string |
| $["marketCoverage"]["capturedEvents"] | 16number |
| $["marketCoverage"]["matchedGames"] | 3number |
| $["marketCoverage"]["representativeSample"] | falseboolean |
| $["mode"] | research_previewstring |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["candidate_minus_baseline_mae"] | 0.12542242596383765number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["negative_favors_candidate"] | trueboolean |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.