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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 11251–11300 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["interval_count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["mae"] | 48.445373220716405number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["mean_interval_width"] | 163.45827078225906number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["spearman"] | 0.6841298092783372number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["count"] | 419number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["coverage"] | 0.8138424821002387number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["interval_count"] | 419number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mae"] | 46.175543837912834number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mean_interval_width"] | 162.51933009639433number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["spearman"] | 0.7164905709142368number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["overall"]["count"] | 3009number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["overall"]["coverage"] | 0.8140877598152425number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["overall"]["interval_count"] | 2598number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["overall"]["mae"] | 49.467273177351245number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["overall"]["mean_interval_width"] | 169.02084608577235number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["overall"]["spearman"] | 0.6584603383681302number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["count"] | 445number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["coverage"] | 0.8298969072164949number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["interval_count"] | 388number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["mae"] | 70.0093221971333number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["mean_interval_width"] | 256.8282751369467number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["spearman"] | 0.6631746177419159number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["count"] | 838number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["coverage"] | 0.8071625344352618number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["interval_count"] | 726number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["mae"] | 50.12483979737916number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["mean_interval_width"] | 165.44326522596586number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["spearman"] | 0.6598563420055114number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["count"] | 564number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["coverage"] | 0.7991718426501035number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["interval_count"] | 483number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["mae"] | 37.45812806841633number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["mean_interval_width"] | 120.2749203033996number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["spearman"] | 0.625558021106246number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["count"] | 1162number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["coverage"] | 0.8201798201798202number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["interval_count"] | 1001number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["mae"] | 46.9551434011489number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["mean_interval_width"] | 161.10108922788018number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["spearman"] | 0.6884185527087027number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["count"] | 411number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["coverage"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["interval_count"] | 0number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["mae"] | 52.53577935225621number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["mean_interval_width"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["spearman"] | 0.6083221945611408number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["count"] | 427number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["coverage"] | 0.8056206088992974number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["interval_count"] | 427number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["mae"] | 51.60994756583423number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.