Loading DraftADynasty…
Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 11401–11450 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["interval_count"] | 419number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mae"] | 48.674163506688515number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mean_interval_width"] | 168.43697923264978number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_points"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["spearman"] | 0.6724034268822322number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["candidate_minus_baseline_mae"] | 0.004345171735496371number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["negative_favors_candidate"] | trueboolean |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["percentile_95_interval"][0] | -0.0055457511757369595number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["percentile_95_interval"][1] | 0.014290665908990396number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["player_blocks"] | 1002number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_age_plus_production"]["replicates"] | 500number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_football"]["candidate_minus_baseline_mae"] | -0.013196611381594468number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_football"]["negative_favors_candidate"] | trueboolean |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_football"]["percentile_95_interval"][0] | -0.0632954497084091number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_football"]["percentile_95_interval"][1] | 0.029397717407052684number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_football"]["player_blocks"] | 1002number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["original_football"]["replicates"] | 500number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["prior_production"]["candidate_minus_baseline_mae"] | -0.1330454126071159number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["prior_production"]["negative_favors_candidate"] | trueboolean |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["prior_production"]["percentile_95_interval"][0] | -0.17240548701118014number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["prior_production"]["percentile_95_interval"][1] | -0.09393572162701334number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["prior_production"]["player_blocks"] | 1002number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["comparisons"]["prior_production"]["replicates"] | 500number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["overall"]["count"] | 3009number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["overall"]["coverage"] | 0.8321785989222479number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["overall"]["interval_count"] | 2598number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["overall"]["mae"] | 3.1026931451151216number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["overall"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.598556045779798number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["overall"]["spearman"] | 0.6855349536408595number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["count"] | 445number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["coverage"] | 0.8170103092783505number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["interval_count"] | 388number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["mae"] | 4.571900060125816number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["mean_interval_width"] | 15.080721891079952number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["spearman"] | 0.6587493260022503number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["count"] | 838number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["coverage"] | 0.8278236914600551number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["interval_count"] | 726number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["mae"] | 3.169423088845686number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["mean_interval_width"] | 11.006718472684138number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["RB"]["spearman"] | 0.6751328523798762number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["count"] | 564number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["coverage"] | 0.8281573498964804number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["interval_count"] | 483number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["mae"] | 2.3063761126792155number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["mean_interval_width"] | 7.728716161094409number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["TE"]["spearman"] | 0.6392233814943868number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["count"] | 1162number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["coverage"] | 0.8431568431568431number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["interval_count"] | 1001number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["mae"] | 2.878429837256153number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.