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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 11451–11500 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["mean_interval_width"] | 9.949931065154455number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perPosition"]["WR"]["spearman"] | 0.722403400595406number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["count"] | 411number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["coverage"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["interval_count"] | 0number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["mae"] | 3.368585846861615number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["mean_interval_width"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["spearman"] | 0.6275969236239786number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["count"] | 427number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["coverage"] | 0.8220140515222483number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["interval_count"] | 427number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["mae"] | 3.2778634427581332number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["mean_interval_width"] | 11.118690995866745number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["spearman"] | 0.7043123339399808number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["count"] | 438number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["coverage"] | 0.8242009132420092number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["interval_count"] | 438number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["mae"] | 3.1676751369916634number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.913150629578103number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["spearman"] | 0.6423613415928602number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["coverage"] | 0.8548387096774194number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["interval_count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["mae"] | 2.987478712556409number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.79918765388993number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["spearman"] | 0.6735775312658835number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["count"] | 446number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["coverage"] | 0.8542600896860987number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["interval_count"] | 446number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["mae"] | 2.996142129884144number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.478833093106648number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["spearman"] | 0.7160437708493977number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["coverage"] | 0.8133640552995391number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["interval_count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["mae"] | 3.08953000865494number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.167359025275758number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["spearman"] | 0.7091386560550439number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["count"] | 419number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["coverage"] | 0.8233890214797136number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["interval_count"] | 419number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mae"] | 2.8418241422366366number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.105887249790293number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["nested_ridge"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["spearman"] | 0.734846237469212number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["overall"]["count"] | 3009number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["overall"]["coverage"] | 0.8302540415704388number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["overall"]["interval_count"] | 2598number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["overall"]["mae"] | 3.0983479733796253number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["overall"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.517439073049555number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_age_plus_production"]["overall"]["spearman"] | 0.6876097753705523number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.