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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 11601–11650 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["mean_interval_width"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2019"]["spearman"] | 0.6316332822534751number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["count"] | 427number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["coverage"] | 0.8407494145199064number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["interval_count"] | 427number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["mae"] | 3.3003720882260863number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["mean_interval_width"] | 11.31447090231057number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2020"]["spearman"] | 0.6974651803546104number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["count"] | 438number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["coverage"] | 0.8310502283105022number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["interval_count"] | 438number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["mae"] | 3.16226837567005number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.959130281161528number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2021"]["spearman"] | 0.6443055489836615number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["coverage"] | 0.8387096774193549number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["interval_count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["mae"] | 2.999882163271472number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.664374834220387number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2022"]["spearman"] | 0.6657283281975507number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["count"] | 446number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["coverage"] | 0.8497757847533632number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["interval_count"] | 446number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["mae"] | 2.9690636243565143number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.378321982264254number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2023"]["spearman"] | 0.7226849347444392number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["coverage"] | 0.815668202764977number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["interval_count"] | 434number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["mae"] | 3.0965050556168725number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.231749891413578number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2024"]["spearman"] | 0.7041065868803991number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["count"] | 419number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["coverage"] | 0.8233890214797136number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["interval_count"] | 419number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mae"] | 2.821829861298338number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["mean_interval_width"] | 10.111615995239127number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["original_football"]["perSeason"]["2025"]["spearman"] | 0.7415314312313663number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["overall"]["count"] | 3009number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["overall"]["coverage"] | 0.8302540415704388number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["overall"]["interval_count"] | 2598number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["overall"]["mae"] | 3.2357385577222373number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["overall"]["mean_interval_width"] | 11.04236506701756number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["overall"]["spearman"] | 0.6531284730601314number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["count"] | 445number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["coverage"] | 0.8144329896907216number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["interval_count"] | 388number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["mae"] | 4.921413317539617number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["mean_interval_width"] | 16.821218693903194number |
| $["player"]["next_season_ppr_ppg"]["summaries"]["prior_production"]["perPosition"]["QB"]["spearman"] | 0.5993685080005757number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.