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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 11851–11900 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["teams"][13]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 5number |
| $["teams"][13]["winEquivalentInterval80"][1] | 10number |
| $["teams"][14]["expectedWins"] | 10.5261number |
| $["teams"][14]["gamesPlayed"] | 0number |
| $["teams"][14]["gamesRemaining"] | 17number |
| $["teams"][14]["scheduleComplete"] | trueboolean |
| $["teams"][14]["team"] | JAXstring |
| $["teams"][14]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 8number |
| $["teams"][14]["winEquivalentInterval80"][1] | 13number |
| $["teams"][15]["expectedWins"] | 8.1728number |
| $["teams"][15]["gamesPlayed"] | 0number |
| $["teams"][15]["gamesRemaining"] | 17number |
| $["teams"][15]["scheduleComplete"] | trueboolean |
| $["teams"][15]["team"] | KCstring |
| $["teams"][15]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 6number |
| $["teams"][15]["winEquivalentInterval80"][1] | 11number |
| $["teams"][16]["expectedWins"] | 8.235number |
| $["teams"][16]["gamesPlayed"] | 0number |
| $["teams"][16]["gamesRemaining"] | 17number |
| $["teams"][16]["scheduleComplete"] | trueboolean |
| $["teams"][16]["team"] | LACstring |
| $["teams"][16]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 6number |
| $["teams"][16]["winEquivalentInterval80"][1] | 11number |
| $["teams"][17]["expectedWins"] | 10.2549number |
| $["teams"][17]["gamesPlayed"] | 0number |
| $["teams"][17]["gamesRemaining"] | 17number |
| $["teams"][17]["scheduleComplete"] | trueboolean |
| $["teams"][17]["team"] | LARstring |
| $["teams"][17]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 8number |
| $["teams"][17]["winEquivalentInterval80"][1] | 13number |
| $["teams"][18]["expectedWins"] | 5.5099number |
| $["teams"][18]["gamesPlayed"] | 0number |
| $["teams"][18]["gamesRemaining"] | 17number |
| $["teams"][18]["scheduleComplete"] | trueboolean |
| $["teams"][18]["team"] | LVstring |
| $["teams"][18]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 3number |
| $["teams"][18]["winEquivalentInterval80"][1] | 8number |
| $["teams"][19]["expectedWins"] | 7.2898number |
| $["teams"][19]["gamesPlayed"] | 0number |
| $["teams"][19]["gamesRemaining"] | 17number |
| $["teams"][19]["scheduleComplete"] | trueboolean |
| $["teams"][19]["team"] | MIAstring |
| $["teams"][19]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 5number |
| $["teams"][19]["winEquivalentInterval80"][1] | 10number |
| $["teams"][20]["expectedWins"] | 9.8981number |
| $["teams"][20]["gamesPlayed"] | 0number |
| $["teams"][20]["gamesRemaining"] | 17number |
| $["teams"][20]["scheduleComplete"] | trueboolean |
| $["teams"][20]["team"] | MINstring |
| $["teams"][20]["winEquivalentInterval80"][0] | 7number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.