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NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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272 matches · 41–60 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_03_SEA_WAS
away Team SEA
elo Probability 0.4199426011500982
expected Away Score 25.83220041031838
expected Home Margin -5.873625605504598
expected Home Score 19.95857480481378
expected Total 45.79077521513216 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 7.202055103121086,
"allowedSum": 42.16742354227519,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -111.11241472053348,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -13.11103215613206,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -5.908977053010979,
"scoringSum": 47.8801338427189,
"winRateDifference": -0.41283543286594065
}
game Id 2026_03_SEA_WAS
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-23.907239103894987,
12.15998789288579
]
home Team WAS
home Win Probability 0.30940262263181895
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.433966402871377,
62.14758402739294
]
week 3 2026_03_TEN_NYG
away Team TEN
elo Probability 0.6045417606439039
expected Away Score 20.06966949251221
expected Home Margin 5.712938190004959
expected Home Score 25.782607682517177
expected Total 45.852277175029386 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.919853499237817,
"allowedSum": 49.245096448573136,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 18.730271210378532,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 9.10981314495556,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 4.1899596457177495,
"scoringSum": 43.52820469244519,
"winRateDifference": 0.110606309111074
}
game Id 2026_03_TEN_NYG
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.320675308385429,
23.746551688395343
]
home Team NYG
home Win Probability 0.6847414377717103
kickoff 2026-09-27T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.495468362768605,
62.209085987290166
]
week 3 2026_03_ARI_SF
away Team ARI
elo Probability 0.7265278548582232
expected Away Score 19.35167703330869
expected Home Margin 7.832047418617259
expected Home Score 27.183724451925944
expected Total 46.53540148523463 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.104618339057179,
"allowedSum": 54.01662733094577,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 114.73566895001886,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 7.308166653676388,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.203548314619205,
"scoringSum": 42.64226110787567,
"winRateDifference": 0.3664348647065363
}
game Id 2026_03_ARI_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-10.201566079773128,
25.865660917007645
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.7405156266970777
kickoff 2026-09-27T20:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.17859267297385,
62.89221029749541
]
week 3 2026_03_MIN_TB
away Team MIN
elo Probability 0.521306008811793
expected Away Score 21.354514468852408
expected Home Margin -0.47424448466620994
expected Home Score 20.8802699841862
expected Total 42.23478445303861 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.205320282615265,
"allowedSum": 39.14251835296588,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -40.186098078704845,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.88333321882736,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.32198706378790476,
"scoringSum": 41.04862419781247,
"winRateDifference": -0.2552914432503677
}
game Id 2026_03_MIN_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.507857983056596,
17.55936901372418
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.5002823069583462
kickoff 2026-09-27T20:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.877975640777827,
58.59159326529939
]
week 3 2026_03_BAL_DAL
away Team BAL
elo Probability 0.45163771095878913
expected Away Score 25.544572170820334
expected Home Margin -3.3673017005615953
expected Home Score 22.17727047025874
expected Total 47.72184264107908 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.927379003321903,
"allowedSum": 49.5113965692148,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -33.71095321989924,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -6.694500707564682,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.7671217042427827,
"scoringSum": 48.39970377801587,
"winRateDifference": -0.05493286846335549
}
game Id 2026_03_BAL_DAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-21.40091519895198,
14.666311797828792
]
home Team DAL
home Win Probability 0.36898298754828623
kickoff 2026-09-27T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.365033828818294,
64.07865145333986
]
week 3 2026_03_LV_NO
away Team LV
elo Probability 0.632213133225674
expected Away Score 17.67840205571758
expected Home Margin 6.685521699031961
expected Home Score 24.36392375474954
expected Total 42.04232581046712 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.309028582425089,
"allowedSum": 44.0056506313305,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 39.10691853207891,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 8.729223026879092,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 5.420194444454005,
"scoringSum": 37.591689591160026,
"winRateDifference": 0.2023071427384961
}
game Id 2026_03_LV_NO
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.348091799358428,
24.719135197422347
]
home Team NO
home Win Probability 0.721303141554574
kickoff 2026-09-27T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.68551699820634,
58.3991346227279
]
week 3 2026_03_LA_DEN
away Team LAR
elo Probability 0.5857421484662817
expected Away Score 22.393614112084546
expected Home Margin 1.915990521212343
expected Home Score 24.309604633296885
expected Total 46.70321874538143 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.895333854935021,
"allowedSum": 43.41646157484905,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": 5.174290951999865,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -0.9995917320753396,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": -5.894925587010359,
"scoringSum": 48.828937101888044,
"winRateDifference": 0.06543498298498784
}
game Id 2026_03_LA_DEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.117622977178044,
19.94960401960273
]
home Team DEN
home Win Probability 0.5550218120318199
kickoff 2026-09-28T00:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.346409933120647,
63.06002755764221
]
week 3 2026_03_PHI_CHI
away Team PHI
elo Probability 0.5040417793729411
expected Away Score 21.77513939216401
expected Home Margin 0.9737623211608007
expected Home Score 22.74890171332481
expected Total 44.52404110548882 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.9466002210139735,
"allowedSum": 42.23762805616028,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 8,
"eloDifference": -52.191422858470105,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": -0.12426466529654512,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.8223355557174266,
"scoringSum": 44.68670047270899,
"winRateDifference": 0.022825766805998186
}
game Id 2026_03_PHI_CHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-28 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.059851177229586,
19.00737581955119
]
home Team CHI
home Win Probability 0.5317339992215386
kickoff 2026-09-29T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.16723229322804,
60.8808499177496
]
week 3 2026_04_PIT_CLE
away Team PIT
elo Probability 0.4740381324364666
expected Away Score 21.12760875735523
expected Home Margin 0.17887964948468094
expected Home Score 21.306488406839907
expected Total 42.43409716419514 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.722873362385812,
"allowedSum": 43.59336080178781,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": -73.05639212417555,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": 0.3008973021499086,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.4219760602358988,
"scoringSum": 38.26088038873179,
"winRateDifference": -0.036260729894593224
}
game Id 2026_04_PIT_CLE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.854733848905706,
18.21249314787507
]
home Team CLE
home Win Probability 0.5068416754215078
kickoff 2026-10-02T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.077288351934357,
58.79090597645592
]
week 4 2026_04_IND_WAS
away Team IND
elo Probability 0.4925647817534677
expected Away Score 23.482865915433777
expected Home Margin -0.5284052683866145
expected Home Score 22.95446064704716
expected Total 46.43732656248093 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.271069891772143,
"allowedSum": 51.640548537168414,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -5.166899684376858,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.013536199231412471,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.257533692540729,
"scoringSum": 44.22869048224865,
"winRateDifference": 0.1269375451278703
}
game Id 2026_04_IND_WAS
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.562018766777,
17.505208230003774
]
home Team WAS
home Win Probability 0.4597663116564299
kickoff 2026-10-04T13:30:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.080517750220153,
62.794135374741714
]
week 4 2026_04_ARI_NYG
away Team ARI
elo Probability 0.5830498437625846
expected Away Score 20.362850235409027
expected Home Margin 5.9534188184613335
expected Home Score 26.316269053870364
expected Total 46.67911928927939 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.398001360333815,
"allowedSum": 51.723244309669134,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 3.248616960629988,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 11.037727132787058,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.639725772453239,
"scoringSum": 44.0784385657097,
"winRateDifference": 0.22981783889515608
}
game Id 2026_04_ARI_NYG
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.080194679929054,
23.98703231685172
]
home Team NYG
home Win Probability 0.6817822742891424
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.32231047701861,
63.03592810154017
]
week 4 2026_04_DAL_HOU
away Team DAL
elo Probability 0.6576287330627536
expected Away Score 20.450825476934803
expected Home Margin 6.496439268996584
expected Home Score 26.947264745931385
expected Total 47.39809022286619 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.512255173774868,
"allowedSum": 47.92652039876184,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 58.39338806849173,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 7.79540949698784,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.28315432321297607,
"scoringSum": 47.91573639698606,
"winRateDifference": 0.24906454485260895
}
game Id 2026_04_DAL_HOU
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.537174229393804,
24.53005276738697
]
home Team HOU
home Win Probability 0.7004501128550701
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.041281410605407,
63.75489903512697
]
week 4 2026_04_GB_TB
away Team GB
elo Probability 0.5417726921974393
expected Away Score 21.4334025633251
expected Home Margin 1.183044385869524
expected Home Score 22.61644694919462
expected Total 44.04984951251972 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.914944194271328,
"allowedSum": 46.26278282985248,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": -25.905542531124865,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.332368223695053,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": -0.5825759705762792,
"scoringSum": 41.95318723217666,
"winRateDifference": 0.06627290228151228
}
game Id 2026_04_GB_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.850569112520862,
19.216657884259913
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.5412013849188845
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.69304070025894,
60.4066583247805
]
week 4 2026_04_JAX_CIN
away Team JAX
elo Probability 0.5263334509189056
expected Away Score 24.699692920949964
expected Home Margin -1.138455930847717
expected Home Score 23.561236990102245
expected Total 48.26092991105221 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.6126487278738217,
"allowedSum": 43.14116541552548,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -36.684697233577936,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -6.422415019655726,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.8097662917819015,
"scoringSum": 52.815625263384334,
"winRateDifference": -0.21471805357137913
}
game Id 2026_04_JAX_CIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.172069429238103,
16.89515756754267
]
home Team CIN
home Win Probability 0.45705556756259613
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.90412109879143,
64.61773872331298
]
week 4 2026_04_LA_PHI
away Team LAR
elo Probability 0.5856642791251638
expected Away Score 22.682311782706112
expected Home Margin 1.0788598704074188
expected Home Score 23.761171653113532
expected Total 46.44348343581965 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.510383797318884,
"allowedSum": 43.80141163246519,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 5.118543935157504,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": -1.9193650886345397,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": -6.429748885953423,
"scoringSum": 48.294113802944985,
"winRateDifference": -0.100528287771652
}
game Id 2026_04_LA_PHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.954753627982967,
19.112473368797808
]
home Team PHI
home Win Probability 0.5357263158580667
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.086674623558864,
62.800292248080424
]
week 4 2026_04_NE_BUF
away Team NE
elo Probability 0.6140612260702781
expected Away Score 21.325941352392423
expected Home Margin 3.2249902892224487
expected Home Score 24.55093164161487
expected Total 45.87687299400729 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.014077286727328,
"allowedSum": 40.70148427210961,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 25.67730503322855,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -0.5844580164489628,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.429619270278362,
"scoringSum": 48.39551667792527,
"winRateDifference": -0.08619347539565891
}
game Id 2026_04_NE_BUF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.80862320916794,
21.25860378761283
]
home Team BUF
home Win Probability 0.6175472975563956
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.520064181746513,
62.23368180626807
]
week 4 2026_04_NYJ_CHI
away Team NYJ
elo Probability 0.694167713069775
expected Away Score 17.76956805020939
expected Home Margin 9.547672651567844
expected Home Score 27.317240701777234
expected Total 45.086808751986624 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -6.9118402892374675,
"allowedSum": 52.09606856641173,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 87.39243110119583,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 14.33627730432555,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 7.424437015088081,
"scoringSum": 40.084599013338334,
"winRateDifference": 0.23377934599518108
}
game Id 2026_04_NYJ_CHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-8.485940846822544,
27.58128614995823
]
home Team CHI
home Win Probability 0.7899530749956057
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.729999939725843,
61.44361756424741
]
week 4 2026_04_TEN_BAL
away Team TEN
elo Probability 0.7268418241830576
expected Away Score 18.481354689151637
expected Home Margin 9.10927975495174
expected Home Score 27.59063444410338
expected Total 46.071989133255016 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.290466190959027,
"allowedSum": 48.87448375685193,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 115.01028235701892,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 10.204756408724624,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 4.914290217765604,
"scoringSum": 44.25253526449305,
"winRateDifference": 0.15384613938289793
}
game Id 2026_04_TEN_BAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-8.924333743438646,
27.14289325334213
]
home Team BAL
home Win Probability 0.7812668397354429
kickoff 2026-10-04T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.715180320994236,
62.4287979455158
]
week 4 2026_04_MIA_MIN
away Team MIA
elo Probability 0.6448816583080152
expected Away Score 18.054287468114104
expected Home Margin 6.545103145821269
expected Home Score 24.59939061393537
expected Total 42.653678082049474 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.861296882928791,
"allowedSum": 41.79849495327941,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 48.642768379373365,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 8.266879422677558,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.4055825397487709,
"scoringSum": 40.3210545942758,
"winRateDifference": 0.1924812800041255
}
game Id 2026_04_MIA_MIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.48851035256912,
24.578716644211656
]
home Team MIN
home Win Probability 0.7147810704856129
kickoff 2026-10-04T20:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.296869269788697,
59.010486894310255
]
week 4 2026_04_DEN_SF
away Team DEN
elo Probability 0.5495254143901076
expected Away Score 22.129282559132676
expected Home Margin 0.30954073543662686
expected Home Score 22.438823294569303
expected Total 44.56810585370198 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.1954406359872785,
"allowedSum": 43.71656835590131,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -20.473004808403175,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.239541682178687,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.9558989538085924,
"scoringSum": 43.88991046868628,
"winRateDifference": -0.06717167110368538
}
game Id 2026_04_DEN_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.72407276295376,
18.343154233827015
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.5150983646478324
kickoff 2026-10-04T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.2112970414412,
60.92491466596276
]
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