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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 1801–1850 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-07"]["probability"]["expectedCalibrationError"] | 0.14142639982285796number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-07"]["probability"]["logLoss"] | 0.5697501920547324number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-07"]["probability"]["n"] | 15number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-07"]["totalMae"] | 11.28612617083066number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["games"] | 13number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["marginMae"] | 14.95160940621214number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["accuracy"] | 0.6923076923076923number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["brier"] | 0.18522911646148693number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["lower"] | 0.3number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["n"] | 2number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["observed"] | 0number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["predicted"] | 0.32653573259860724number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["upper"] | 0.4number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["lower"] | 0.4number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["n"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["observed"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["predicted"] | 0.4633408202390709number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["upper"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][2]["lower"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][2]["n"] | 3number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][2]["observed"] | 0.6666666666666666number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][2]["predicted"] | 0.5471284284676913number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][2]["upper"] | 0.6number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][3]["lower"] | 0.6number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][3]["n"] | 2number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][3]["observed"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][3]["predicted"] | 0.6589580668976425number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][3]["upper"] | 0.7number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][4]["lower"] | 0.7number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][4]["n"] | 4number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][4]["observed"] | 0.75number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][4]["predicted"] | 0.7451759362279189number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][4]["upper"] | 0.8number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][5]["lower"] | 0.8number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][5]["n"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][5]["observed"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][5]["predicted"] | 0.8823429039745281number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["calibration"][5]["upper"] | 0.9number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["expectedCalibrationError"] | 0.15409344957416546number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["logLoss"] | 0.5498849620629831number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["probability"]["n"] | 13number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-08"]["totalMae"] | 9.390322098216291number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["games"] | 14number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["marginMae"] | 9.77541967660571number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["probability"]["accuracy"] | 0.5714285714285714number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["probability"]["brier"] | 0.25816157365075043number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["lower"] | 0.2number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["n"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["observed"] | 0number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-09"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["predicted"] | 0.216932236720378number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.