Experimental · Frozen source

NFL game forecasts & backtests

272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.

Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC

Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.

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272 matches · 61–80 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.

2026_04_KC_LV

away Team: KC
elo Probability: 0.4391156182004282
expected Away Score: 21.42420409687507
expected Home Margin: -2.504518154014439
expected Home Score: 18.919685942860628
expected Total: 40.3438900397357
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 3.267568136914278, "allowedSum": 44.04711107684131, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -97.51778514142848, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -5.170145041408367, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -1.9025769044940937, "scoringSum": 34.07407205120012, "winRateDifference": 0.05317421473408629 }
game Id: 2026_04_KC_LV
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-04
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -20.538131652404825, 15.529095344375948 ]
home Team: LV
home Win Probability: 0.41513110795189406
kickoff: 2026-10-04T20:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 23.987081227474917, 56.70069885199648 ]
week: 4

2026_04_LAC_SEA

away Team: LAC
elo Probability: 0.6633644221074012
expected Away Score: 17.21806293034006
expected Home Margin: 9.09930452588959
expected Home Score: 26.317367456229658
expected Total: 43.535430386569715
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -2.0740819354221856, "allowedSum": 37.03945037457628, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 62.83686492275456, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 11.299716520286855, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 9.225634584864672, "scoringSum": 44.563476310865205, "winRateDifference": 0.35943524311024105 }
game Id: 2026_04_LAC_SEA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-04
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -8.934308972500798, 27.132918024279977 ]
home Team: SEA
home Win Probability: 0.7813513405904605
kickoff: 2026-10-04T20:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.178621574308934, 59.892239198830495 ]
week: 4

2026_04_DET_CAR

away Team: DET
elo Probability: 0.4555836534321942
expected Away Score: 23.593713432615296
expected Home Margin: -1.5634855838385544
expected Home Score: 22.03022784877674
expected Total: 45.623941281392035
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -0.6032361822775911, "allowedSum": 47.538613668790106, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -85.94520952262769, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -2.4630098005129972, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -3.0662459827905906, "scoringSum": 44.326750241719054, "winRateDifference": -0.10038993323403415 }
game Id: 2026_04_DET_CAR
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-04
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -19.597099082228944, 16.47012791455183 ]
home Team: CAR
home Win Probability: 0.4370785723487819
kickoff: 2026-10-05T00:20:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.267132469131255, 61.980750093652816 ]
week: 4

2026_04_ATL_NO

away Team: ATL
elo Probability: 0.5373427752951606
expected Away Score: 21.420165928192375
expected Home Margin: 1.2001875153106585
expected Home Score: 22.620353443503035
expected Total: 44.04051937169541
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -2.5684689255219517, "allowedSum": 43.265090974427366, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 11, "eloDifference": -29.003173720399445, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 8, "marginDifference": 1.7570726362195652, "restDifference": -3, "scoringDifference": -0.8113962893023867, "scoringSum": 43.82328032491642, "winRateDifference": -0.09919028384291562 }
game Id: 2026_04_ATL_NO
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-05
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.833425983079728, 19.233801013701047 ]
home Team: NO
home Win Probability: 0.5479894206637501
kickoff: 2026-10-06T00:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.68371055943463, 60.39732818395619 ]
week: 4

2026_05_TB_DAL

away Team: TB
elo Probability: 0.5760757336491168
expected Away Score: 22.557574838140777
expected Home Margin: 1.5401067179951988
expected Home Score: 24.097681556135974
expected Total: 46.655256394276755
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 5.545468468477779, "allowedSum": 49.89330710405893, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 4, "eloDifference": -1.7234782619439102, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 4, "marginDifference": -2.4144830623914246, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 3.130985406086353, "scoringSum": 44.501596667686734, "winRateDifference": 0.013448372086179772 }
game Id: 2026_05_TB_DAL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-08
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.49350678039519, 19.573720216385585 ]
home Team: DAL
home Win Probability: 0.5506581750915878
kickoff: 2026-10-09T00:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.298447582015974, 63.012065206537535 ]
week: 5

2026_05_PHI_JAX

away Team: PHI
elo Probability: 0.521586938258575
expected Away Score: 20.796589172169703
expected Home Margin: 4.264521734100399
expected Home Score: 25.061110906270105
expected Total: 45.857700078439805
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.11874442625267534, "allowedSum": 39.409772261398984, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -39.99052848996621, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 6.761768892834663, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 6.880513319087335, "scoringSum": 48.7448782360789, "winRateDifference": 0.1823124148020553 }
game Id: 2026_05_PHI_JAX
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -13.769091764289987, 22.298135232490782 ]
home Team: JAX
home Win Probability: 0.6359354766123881
kickoff: 2026-10-11T13:30:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.500891266179025, 62.214508890700586 ]
week: 5

2026_05_CIN_MIA

away Team: CIN
elo Probability: 0.5793482248219273
expected Away Score: 23.219560428686396
expected Home Margin: -0.4382207840507184
expected Home Score: 22.781339644635676
expected Total: 46.00090007332207
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.4529888464044485, "allowedSum": 48.20680298980375, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 0.6067818306109984, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -6.498182304942145, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -5.0451934585377, "scoringSum": 44.960665513064725, "winRateDifference": 0.03224896557942891 }
game Id: 2026_05_CIN_MIA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.471834282441105, 17.59539271433967 ]
home Team: MIA
home Win Probability: 0.4786877377027573
kickoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.64409126106129, 62.35770888558285 ]
week: 5

2026_05_CLE_NYJ

away Team: CLE
elo Probability: 0.5406338676891016
expected Away Score: 22.55579308883638
expected Home Margin: -3.3600650637930944
expected Home Score: 19.195728025043287
expected Total: 41.75152111387967
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 8.568710708123596, "allowedSum": 50.439198147525595, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 10, "eloDifference": -26.702289788741385, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -10.658081873246411, "restDifference": -3, "scoringDifference": -2.08937116512282, "scoringSum": 34.74953316337307, "winRateDifference": -0.2085247759467807 }
game Id: 2026_05_CLE_NYJ
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -21.39367856218348, 14.673548434597294 ]
home Team: NYJ
home Win Probability: 0.40306672182016495
kickoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.39471230161889, 58.10832992614045 ]
week: 5

2026_05_HOU_TEN

away Team: HOU
elo Probability: 0.38047549805206055
expected Away Score: 25.750157544879595
expected Home Margin: -6.268751659334471
expected Home Score: 19.48140588554513
expected Total: 45.23156343042472
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 6.875342361411992, "allowedSum": 47.28960758639896, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -139.69271720561142, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -11.305665198147782, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -4.430322836735797, "scoringSum": 43.76856788346324, "winRateDifference": -0.3479778157721514 }
game Id: 2026_05_HOU_TEN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -24.302365157724857, 11.764861839055916 ]
home Team: TEN
home Win Probability: 0.29354420253883756
kickoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.87475461816394, 61.5883722426855 ]
week: 5

2026_05_IND_PIT

away Team: IND
elo Probability: 0.6313032333464652
expected Away Score: 20.95618075099772
expected Home Margin: 3.6431228436252856
expected Home Score: 24.59930359462301
expected Total: 45.55548434562073
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -4.297692132383467, "allowedSum": 49.61392629655709, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 38.42747386123756, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 10, "marginDifference": 0.8960082694726239, "restDifference": 3, "scoringDifference": -3.4016838629108435, "scoringSum": 43.084540311878534, "winRateDifference": 0.23194915499356783 }
game Id: 2026_05_IND_PIT
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -14.390490654765102, 21.676736342015673 ]
home Team: PIT
home Win Probability: 0.609473043917508
kickoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.198675533359943, 61.91229315788151 ]
week: 5

2026_05_LV_NE

away Team: LV
elo Probability: 0.7389644062363814
expected Away Score: 15.783902371376575
expected Home Margin: 10.46271343349213
expected Home Score: 26.246615804868703
expected Total: 42.03051817624528
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -5.313636114186654, "allowedSum": 42.00104309956893, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 125.7695160693138, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 11.710837244657093, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 6.397201130470442, "scoringSum": 38.568696277176464, "winRateDifference": 0.34323907729319764 }
game Id: 2026_05_LV_NE
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -7.570900064898257, 28.49632693188252 ]
home Team: NE
home Win Probability: 0.8163287759086265
kickoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.6737093639845, 58.38732698850606 ]
week: 5

2026_05_MIN_NO

away Team: MIN
elo Probability: 0.468383303143891
expected Away Score: 21.389710194017077
expected Home Margin: -0.5537080964521839
expected Home Score: 20.836002097564897
expected Total: 42.22571229158197
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 3.3797119892773964, "allowedSum": 37.316910059628015, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -76.99888306446223, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": -2.2370885384826713, "restDifference": -1, "scoringDifference": 1.14262345079473, "scoringSum": 41.8692605848193, "winRateDifference": -0.1368338617921553 }
game Id: 2026_05_MIN_NO
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.58732159484257, 17.479905401938204 ]
home Team: NO
home Win Probability: 0.49116124016702994
kickoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.86890347932119, 58.58252110384275 ]
week: 5

2026_05_NYG_WAS

away Team: NYG
elo Probability: 0.6446733365480762
expected Away Score: 22.078952699835305
expected Home Margin: 1.4937198833179115
expected Home Score: 23.572672583153217
expected Total: 45.65162528298852
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.522117848030476, "allowedSum": 46.847360797365795, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 48.48476418858627, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -5.395621622257986, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -2.873503774227512, "scoringSum": 44.844660563935435, "winRateDifference": -0.033354257055080716 }
game Id: 2026_05_NYG_WAS
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.539893615072476, 19.5273333817083 ]
home Team: WAS
home Win Probability: 0.5555003126594384
kickoff: 2026-10-11T17:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.29481647072774, 62.0084340952493 ]
week: 5

2026_05_DEN_LAC

away Team: DEN
elo Probability: 0.5284640518686821
expected Away Score: 20.82573453647248
expected Home Margin: -0.36575121676750744
expected Home Score: 20.459983319704975
expected Total: 41.285717856177456
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.2962022950422174, "allowedSum": 38.817330014956255, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -35.19974281142686, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -4.094287189480798, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -3.7980848944385777, "scoringSum": 39.13592662043911, "winRateDifference": -0.1837427642144467 }
game Id: 2026_05_DEN_LAC
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.399364715157898, 17.66786228162288 ]
home Team: LAC
home Win Probability: 0.5011274579407766
kickoff: 2026-10-11T20:05:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 24.928909043916676, 57.64252666843824 ]
week: 5

2026_05_CHI_GB

away Team: CHI
elo Probability: 0.5931404230936284
expected Away Score: 22.45328779308479
expected Home Margin: 0.7944622624856501
expected Home Score: 23.24775005557045
expected Total: 45.70103784865524
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.496749373474774, "allowedSum": 46.68097765064903, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 10.485191797330344, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -3.9833857863115174, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -2.486636412836738, "scoringSum": 45.02239961558968, "winRateDifference": -0.15206550552364756 }
game Id: 2026_05_CHI_GB
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -17.23915123590474, 18.828075760876036 ]
home Team: GB
home Win Probability: 0.5315488082862091
kickoff: 2026-10-11T20:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.34422903639446, 62.05784666091602 ]
week: 5

2026_05_DET_ARI

away Team: DET
elo Probability: 0.410130743039576
expected Away Score: 25.94068540167544
expected Home Margin: -5.074893080523228
expected Home Score: 20.86579232115221
expected Total: 46.80647772282765
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 5.489697909467626, "allowedSum": 53.63154776053533, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -118.13337487491911, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -8.96683962509422, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -3.4771417156265905, "scoringSum": 43.91585450888306, "winRateDifference": -0.26279334852790326 }
game Id: 2026_05_DET_ARI
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -23.108506578913616, 12.95872041786716 ]
home Team: ARI
home Win Probability: 0.3225974712561872
kickoff: 2026-10-11T20:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.449668910566864, 63.163286535088425 ]
week: 5

2026_05_SF_SEA

away Team: SF
elo Probability: 0.6441791743329385
expected Away Score: 19.323603871664886
expected Home Margin: 8.043151031710183
expected Home Score: 27.366754903375067
expected Total: 46.690358775039954
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -6.973320276367247, "allowedSum": 41.938688715521344, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 48.110126919730874, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 11.444971012984745, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 4.471650736617502, "scoringSum": 49.31746015911237, "winRateDifference": 0.2428641499994797 }
game Id: 2026_05_SF_SEA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -9.990462466680205, 26.07676453010057 ]
home Team: SEA
home Win Probability: 0.7471387025185724
kickoff: 2026-10-11T20:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.333549962779173, 63.047167587300734 ]
week: 5

2026_05_BAL_ATL

away Team: BAL
elo Probability: 0.5218647984438133
expected Away Score: 23.164235681121557
expected Home Margin: -0.2107386293480773
expected Home Score: 22.95349705177348
expected Total: 46.117732732895035
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.1247711670282072, "allowedSum": 44.70878873292111, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -39.79708622331327, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": -3.3908456010481336, "restDifference": -1, "scoringDifference": -2.2660744340199237, "scoringSum": 46.90075104823873, "winRateDifference": 0.14926662475159275 }
game Id: 2026_05_BAL_ATL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-11
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.244352127738463, 17.82287486904231 ]
home Team: ATL
home Win Probability: 0.4814205405557412
kickoff: 2026-10-12T00:20:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.760923920634255, 62.474541545155816 ]
week: 5

2026_05_BUF_LA

away Team: BUF
elo Probability: 0.5601020818076866
expected Away Score: 23.72728681144905
expected Home Margin: 1.7886052109622503
expected Home Score: 25.515892022411304
expected Total: 49.243178833860355
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.798116935473569, "allowedSum": 46.51367849431051, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 8, "eloDifference": -13.033887927598926, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 8, "marginDifference": -0.34875356512617817, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 1.4493633703473885, "scoringSum": 53.27449931855102, "winRateDifference": -0.00970091640946591 }
game Id: 2026_05_BUF_LA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-12
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.24500828742814, 19.822218709352637 ]
home Team: LAR
home Win Probability: 0.550237785540582
kickoff: 2026-10-13T00:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 32.886370021599575, 65.59998764612114 ]
week: 5

2026_06_SEA_DEN

away Team: SEA
elo Probability: 0.5392971319322385
expected Away Score: 22.996656972004075
expected Home Margin: -0.8675156676242661
expected Home Score: 22.129141304379807
expected Total: 45.12579827638388
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.7778796403799682, "allowedSum": 36.74324807953407, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 4, "eloDifference": -27.6371221113277, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 4, "marginDifference": -7.205429330806058, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -5.427549690426094, "scoringSum": 48.361561205303786, "winRateDifference": -0.1756924788957943 }
game Id: 2026_06_SEA_DEN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-10-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.901129166014655, 17.16609783076612 ]
home Team: DEN
home Win Probability: 0.47529222578786745
kickoff: 2026-10-16T00:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.768989464123106, 61.48260708864466 ]
week: 6

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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316

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