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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 2301–2350 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["accuracy"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["brier"] | 0.2007798685201866number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["lower"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["n"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["observed"] | 0number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["predicted"] | 0.5638682235142607number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["upper"] | 0.6number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["lower"] | 0.7number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["n"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["observed"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["predicted"] | 0.7108419747763433number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["calibration"][1]["upper"] | 0.8number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["expectedCalibrationError"] | 0.4265131243689587number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["logLoss"] | 0.5855579866162219number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["probability"]["n"] | 2number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-21"]["totalMae"] | 18.807341209229424number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["games"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["marginMae"] | 15.092578663003128number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["accuracy"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["brier"] | 0.1489144165925445number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["lower"] | 0.3number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["n"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["observed"] | 0number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["predicted"] | 0.3858943075409956number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["calibration"][0]["upper"] | 0.4number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["expectedCalibrationError"] | 0.3858943075409956number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["logLoss"] | 0.4875882280935819number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["probability"]["n"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["weeks"]["2025-22"]["totalMae"] | 2.3037555093312463number |
| $["gameReportSha256"] | a1276c623e927ab248e61c7fb73cc0b1a1d919dee602d8bd468188fd18fd3699string |
| $["games"][0]["awayTeam"] | NEstring |
| $["games"][0]["eloProbability"] | 0.6406679669320707number |
| $["games"][0]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.12410368556533number |
| $["games"][0]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.418617285643572number |
| $["games"][0]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.5427209712089number |
| $["games"][0]["expectedTotal"] | 43.66682465677423number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.861019273114092number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 35.826387712268186number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 45.45483016895719number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 5.272626017155577number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 4.411606744041485number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 49.37750415168839number |
| $["games"][0]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.14523307007565733number |
| $["games"][0]["gameId"] | 2026_01_NE_SEAstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.