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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 2351–2400 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][0]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][0]["gameday"] | 2026-09-09string |
| $["games"][0]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.614996212746815number |
| $["games"][0]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.45223078403396number |
| $["games"][0]["homeTeam"] | SEAstring |
| $["games"][0]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6833377134376994number |
| $["games"][0]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-10T00:20:00Zstring |
| $["games"][0]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][0]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][0]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.31001584451345number |
| $["games"][0]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.02363346903501number |
| $["games"][0]["week"] | 1number |
| $["games"][1]["awayTeam"] | SFstring |
| $["games"][1]["eloProbability"] | 0.5220024005375744number |
| $["games"][1]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.51295193343141number |
| $["games"][1]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.6660495846543668number |
| $["games"][1]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.179001518085773number |
| $["games"][1]["expectedTotal"] | 46.69195345151718number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.3001067810522571number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 48.611902210836334number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 15.29871385640331number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 0number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 5.2391334142540265number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 4.939026633201767number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 49.78483605569664number |
| $["games"][1]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.001736688118697538number |
| $["games"][1]["gameId"] | 2026_01_SF_LAstring |
| $["games"][1]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][1]["gameday"] | 2026-09-10string |
| $["games"][1]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.36756391373602number |
| $["games"][1]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.69966308304475number |
| $["games"][1]["homeTeam"] | LARstring |
| $["games"][1]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5431516489410508number |
| $["games"][1]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-11T00:35:00Zstring |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["caveat"] | Observed outcome price; quote age unknown. Market resolves ties/cancellations 50-50; model conditions on a decisive game. No calibrated edge or blend.string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["comparableProbability"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["conditionId"] | 0x5010f84522ade23439a6e7b173896fdcdeea448d9a538127b2f697fcb28a3dfcstring |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["eventId"] | 776490string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["gameId"] | 2026_01_SF_LAstring |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["homeProbability"] | 0.645number |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["homeTokenId"] | 41514607283449108762234032473096133658801591845994412310798346192428634162569string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["liquidity"] | 26853.0083number |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["marketId"] | 3239630string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["matchMethod"] | exact_team_pair_and_schedule_kickoffstring |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["observedAt"] | 2026-09-05T00:06:13.509Zstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.