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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 2401–2450 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][1]["market"]["provider"] | Polymarketstring |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["quoteEffectiveAt"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["rules"] | In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 10 at 8:35PM ET: If 49ers wins, the market will resolve to "49ers". If Rams wins, the market will resolve to "Rams". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["rulesSha256"] | 0f563a75e3adbfd01bc490c3e281c47b4fa17b64cbbdc0c18278ae6ef2bd51a6string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["sourceSha256"] | d8dc46cab89cde3c04f53db88421aa0c9507570e82c768903eb7feb5bcb88db6string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["url"] | https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-sf-la-2026-09-11string |
| $["games"][1]["market"]["volume24h"] | 909.943211number |
| $["games"][1]["neutral"] | trueboolean |
| $["games"][1]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.3351446392564number |
| $["games"][1]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.04876226377796number |
| $["games"][1]["week"] | 1number |
| $["games"][2]["awayTeam"] | ATLstring |
| $["games"][2]["eloProbability"] | 0.6275016571397211number |
| $["games"][2]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.648906742274356number |
| $["games"][2]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.333300597209361number |
| $["games"][2]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.982207339483715number |
| $["games"][2]["expectedTotal"] | 42.63111408175807number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.2586628678878462number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 45.57489703206147number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 35.59621281087357number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -2.217247214737706number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.475910082625557number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 42.15876653159325number |
| $["games"][2]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.12084910221279987number |
| $["games"][2]["gameId"] | 2026_01_ATL_PITstring |
| $["games"][2]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][2]["gameday"] | 2026-09-13string |
| $["games"][2]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.700312901181025number |
| $["games"][2]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.36691409559975number |
| $["games"][2]["homeTeam"] | PITstring |
| $["games"][2]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5562365642706633number |
| $["games"][2]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-13T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][2]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][2]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][2]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.27430526949729number |
| $["games"][2]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.98792289401885number |
| $["games"][2]["week"] | 1number |
| $["games"][3]["awayTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][3]["eloProbability"] | 0.5177967182356755number |
| $["games"][3]["expectedAwayScore"] | 24.102171269808213number |
| $["games"][3]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -2.3673163028226365number |
| $["games"][3]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.734854966985576number |
| $["games"][3]["expectedTotal"] | 45.83702623679379number |
| $["games"][3]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 5.163800431523828number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.