← All data & metrics Experimental · Frozen source
NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
Full JSON Download all CSV ↓ Metric formulas & meanings Players, teams & metrics All data points Field dictionary This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
272 matches · 81–100 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_06_HOU_JAX
away Team HOU
elo Probability 0.4582927496300804
expected Away Score 22.98113476549009
expected Home Margin 1.1998741654955636
expected Home Score 24.181008930985655
expected Total 47.162143696475745 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.442874268667655,
"allowedSum": 39.97139095631931,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -29.048664704249404,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 4.156124686151257,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.713250417483597,
"scoringSum": 51.91214113768264,
"winRateDifference": -0.017233665700596368
}
game Id 2026_06_HOU_JAX
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.833739332894822,
19.233487663885953
]
home Team JAX
home Win Probability 0.5273539215466224
kickoff 2026-10-18T13:30:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.805334884214965,
63.518952508736525
]
week 6 2026_06_BAL_CLE
away Team BAL
elo Probability 0.4680129651568559
expected Away Score 23.022766387514697
expected Home Margin -2.171661257869005
expected Home Score 20.851105129645692
expected Total 43.87387151716039 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.8567650632454509,
"allowedSum": 42.727252502647445,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -77.25726553661525,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -5.30719551363593,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -6.163960576881379,
"scoringSum": 43.00286490537727,
"winRateDifference": -0.007843207355800352
}
game Id 2026_06_BAL_CLE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.205274756259392,
15.861952240521385
]
home Team CLE
home Win Probability 0.4187969517984058
kickoff 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.517062704899608,
60.23068032942117
]
week 6 2026_06_CAR_PHI
away Team CAR
elo Probability 0.7128606378124056
expected Away Score 18.731594450834436
expected Home Margin 5.290475700661423
expected Home Score 24.02207015149586
expected Total 42.753664602330296 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.8221748256831023,
"allowedSum": 43.113202660829415,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": 102.96476138928824,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 4.124105154714652,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": 0.30193032903154915,
"scoringSum": 41.56243458796001,
"winRateDifference": 0.10523984975971272
}
game Id 2026_06_CAR_PHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.743137797728965,
23.324089199051812
]
home Team PHI
home Win Probability 0.6945367076286642
kickoff 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.396855790069516,
59.11047341459108
]
week 6 2026_06_CHI_ATL
away Team CHI
elo Probability 0.5455937525511654
expected Away Score 22.50854703925475
expected Home Margin 0.929515815729736
expected Home Score 23.438062854984487
expected Total 45.94660989423924 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.32466581138752915,
"allowedSum": 45.50889408856179,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -23.229961999152465,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -1.7618455184913404,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.4371797071038053,
"scoringSum": 46.07185632132261,
"winRateDifference": 0.13185526205899273
}
game Id 2026_06_CHI_ATL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.10409768266065,
18.963129314120124
]
home Team ATL
home Win Probability 0.5219526934181756
kickoff 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.589801081978457,
62.30341870650002
]
week 6 2026_06_NO_NYG
away Team NO
elo Probability 0.5395221998980134
expected Away Score 21.58042779994502
expected Home Margin 1.8190065388679475
expected Home Score 23.399434338812966
expected Total 44.97986213875799 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.814310450214954,
"allowedSum": 42.510932499120365,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -27.479751202927673,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.5388297010595033,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.353140151274456,
"scoringSum": 45.36502418688849,
"winRateDifference": -0.09331617118050106
}
game Id 2026_06_NO_NYG
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.214606959522442,
19.852620037258333
]
home Team NYG
home Win Probability 0.5659032488311848
kickoff 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.623053326497207,
61.33667095101877
]
week 6 2026_06_NYJ_NE
away Team NYJ
elo Probability 0.7345572279014241
expected Away Score 15.83207206226526
expected Home Margin 11.879408598069038
expected Home Score 27.711480660334296
expected Total 43.54355272259956 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -11.160250935133456,
"allowedSum": 47.847657920515736,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 121.8218929188788,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 17.313118639831778,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 6.152867704698327,
"scoringSum": 38.81302970294858,
"winRateDifference": 0.4073762587659598
}
game Id 2026_06_NYJ_NE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-6.15420490032135,
29.913022096459425
]
home Team NE
home Win Probability 0.8381124622368038
kickoff 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.186743910338777,
59.90036153486034
]
week 6 2026_06_PIT_TB
away Team PIT
elo Probability 0.5390833353156965
expected Away Score 20.598857715610773
expected Home Margin 2.161195880341995
expected Home Score 22.760053595952765
expected Total 43.35891131156354 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.48419776429623695,
"allowedSum": 44.83203639987738,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -27.786601545515623,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 1.3280751706125815,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 0.843877406316345,
"scoringSum": 40.52673385528403,
"winRateDifference": -0.09679876308832812
}
game Id 2026_06_PIT_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.872417618048392,
20.194809378732383
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.5750275752730724
kickoff 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.00210249930276,
59.71572012382432
]
week 6 2026_06_TEN_IND
away Team TEN
elo Probability 0.675522301169129
expected Away Score 20.698756168138974
expected Home Margin 5.221520311115056
expected Home Score 25.920276479254035
expected Total 46.61903264739301 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.1266657594351983,
"allowedSum": 54.038284188375755,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 72.38193508334166,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 3.7006553234661617,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.573989564030967,
"scoringSum": 42.91223461075841,
"winRateDifference": -0.04968549307187703
}
game Id 2026_06_TEN_IND
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.81209318727533,
23.255133809505445
]
home Team IND
home Win Probability 0.6767541773602102
kickoff 2026-10-18T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.262223835132232,
62.97584145965379
]
week 6 2026_06_ARI_LA
away Team ARI
elo Probability 0.7436722527333839
expected Away Score 19.20787450899032
expected Home Margin 10.311313950656212
expected Home Score 29.519188459646536
expected Total 48.72706296863686 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.404725120109436,
"allowedSum": 53.71652054989352,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 130.03438280642217,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 12.547300067930417,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 7.142574947820972,
"scoringSum": 47.58128774107743,
"winRateDifference": 0.36817155282523384
}
game Id 2026_06_ARI_LA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-7.722299547734174,
28.3449274490466
]
home Team LAR
home Win Probability 0.8005046656825955
kickoff 2026-10-18T20:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
32.37025415637608,
65.08387178089764
]
week 6 2026_06_BUF_LV
away Team BUF
elo Probability 0.36466054323118774
expected Away Score 25.44588175880716
expected Home Margin -6.682925646420049
expected Home Score 18.76295611238711
expected Total 44.20883787119427 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.2995588274593253,
"allowedSum": 46.01512038629626,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": -151.44682110254234,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -11.12637922820813,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": -9.826820400748804,
"scoringSum": 41.99831554745482,
"winRateDifference": -0.2570456018975387
}
game Id 2026_06_BUF_LV
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-24.716539144810437,
11.350687851970338
]
home Team LV
home Win Probability 0.2761535700653495
kickoff 2026-10-18T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.85202905893349,
60.56564668345505
]
week 6 2026_06_LAC_KC
away Team LAC
elo Probability 0.5631692659955291
expected Away Score 18.665586541691617
expected Home Margin 2.6827321717675656
expected Home Score 21.348318713459182
expected Total 40.0139052551508 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.8330053149642822,
"allowedSum": 39.94653762496275,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -10.869696174087949,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": -0.5136017001174469,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 0.31940361484683777,
"scoringSum": 35.65724534084737,
"winRateDifference": -0.1822111189927002
}
game Id 2026_06_LAC_KC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.350881326622822,
20.716345670157953
]
home Team KC
home Win Probability 0.6016154412565027
kickoff 2026-10-18T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
23.657096442890015,
56.370714067411576
]
week 6 2026_06_DAL_GB
away Team DAL
elo Probability 0.6167203685677479
expected Away Score 22.27005185589036
expected Home Margin 2.1215459448636427
expected Home Score 24.391597800754
expected Total 46.66164965664436 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.6305242742064503,
"allowedSum": 51.808251298330255,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": 27.629020793068776,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.0821148386963717,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": -2.5484094355100737,
"scoringSum": 45.08417263826301,
"winRateDifference": -0.07972127436769205
}
game Id 2026_06_DAL_GB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-18 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.912067553526745,
20.15515944325403
]
home Team GB
home Win Probability 0.5741083285837999
kickoff 2026-10-19T00:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.304840844383577,
63.01845846890514
]
week 6 2026_06_WAS_SF
away Team WAS
elo Probability 0.6635770380716929
expected Away Score 20.52814486884258
expected Home Margin 4.507406681389943
expected Home Score 25.03555155023253
expected Total 45.56369641907511 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.22873482675383985,
"allowedSum": 49.140743818642434,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 8,
"eloDifference": 63.002287800802605,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": 1.6660611431473158,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.4373263163934773,
"scoringSum": 43.4084831061014,
"winRateDifference": 0.16997128286646096
}
game Id 2026_06_WAS_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-19 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.526206817000444,
22.541020179780332
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.649469966998818
kickoff 2026-10-20T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.206887606814327,
61.92050523133589
]
week 6 2026_07_NE_CHI
away Team NE
elo Probability 0.5295688415662477
expected Away Score 22.343889384236515
expected Home Margin 0.599084245381253
expected Home Score 22.94297362961777
expected Total 45.28686301385429 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.248410645895987,
"allowedSum": 40.93581763127827,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": -34.42946181768298,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": -2.9768413355062258,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.2715693103897543,
"scoringSum": 46.23746671803666,
"winRateDifference": -0.17359691277077866
}
game Id 2026_07_NE_CHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-22 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.434529253009135,
18.63269774377164
]
home Team CHI
home Win Probability 0.527048934751058
kickoff 2026-10-23T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.930054201593503,
61.64367182611507
]
week 7 2026_07_PIT_NO
away Team PIT
elo Probability 0.40809069974835743
expected Away Score 21.783765211840507
expected Home Margin -0.32640152224470054
expected Home Score 21.457363689595805
expected Total 43.24112890143631 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.3098060576341055,
"allowedSum": 43.00642810653952,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -64.59938653127301,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 3.974319850957271,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.6645137933231702,
"scoringSum": 41.347370242290864,
"winRateDifference": 0.02165881836988426
}
game Id 2026_07_PIT_NO
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.36001502063509,
17.707211976145686
]
home Team NO
home Win Probability 0.4772487200678297
kickoff 2026-10-25T13:30:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.88432008917553,
59.59793771369709
]
week 7 2026_07_CIN_BAL
away Team CIN
elo Probability 0.6348112997974589
expected Away Score 22.137309560747315
expected Home Margin 2.4387032454957653
expected Home Score 24.57601280624308
expected Total 46.7133223669904 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.5848982887532015,
"allowedSum": 45.1689158546461,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": 41.05092708923485,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.1653815440813111,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -0.4195167446718884,
"scoringSum": 49.58634222693054,
"winRateDifference": 0.037820042882722005
}
game Id 2026_07_CIN_BAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.59491025289462,
20.472316743886154
]
home Team BAL
home Win Probability 0.5907839933453323
kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.356513554729617,
63.07013117925118
]
week 7 2026_07_CLE_TEN
away Team CLE
elo Probability 0.52480003649492
expected Away Score 21.889683010488625
expected Home Margin -0.7465795550057912
expected Home Score 21.14310345548283
expected Total 43.032786465971455 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 6.147231254204478,
"allowedSum": 48.01771869360648,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -37.75301682040367,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.897560895088694,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.2496703591157754,
"scoringSum": 38.08857468761167,
"winRateDifference": -0.14600293202709758
}
game Id 2026_07_CLE_TEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.78019305339618,
17.287033943384596
]
home Team TEN
home Win Probability 0.48272319010819975
kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.675977653710675,
59.389595278232235
]
week 7 2026_07_IND_MIN
away Team IND
elo Probability 0.6477557823758779
expected Away Score 18.722275455705095
expected Home Margin 7.024682460511205
expected Home Score 25.746957916216296
expected Total 44.46923337192139 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -9.98721017929497,
"allowedSum": 43.92440824964559,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 50.82697039442678,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 7.107416658912566,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": -2.879793520382403,
"scoringSum": 43.60643065440698,
"winRateDifference": 0.3904418351556074
}
game Id 2026_07_IND_MIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.008931037879185,
25.058295958901592
]
home Team MIN
home Win Probability 0.7072434695879954
kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.11242455966061,
60.82604218418217
]
week 7 2026_07_MIA_NYJ
away Team MIA
elo Probability 0.4877477930544568
expected Away Score 23.845845698793305
expected Home Margin -4.755498425759924
expected Home Score 19.09034727303338
expected Total 42.936192971826685 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.674058509720496,
"allowedSum": 54.333850345928695,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": -63.515410066732784,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -8.301713537858888,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -3.627655028138389,
"scoringSum": 36.28781702638864,
"winRateDifference": -0.21079690599928796
}
game Id 2026_07_MIA_NYJ
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-22.789111924150312,
13.278115072630465
]
home Team NYJ
home Win Probability 0.3530967150658203
kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.579384159565905,
59.293001784087465
]
week 7 2026_07_NYG_HOU
away Team NYG
elo Probability 0.7335914557482789
expected Away Score 19.642589011640617
expected Home Margin 6.783248734411165
expected Home Score 26.425837746051783
expected Total 46.0684267576924 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.9554888621741744,
"allowedSum": 42.36975408716114,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 120.96244599523288,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 2.195852053192223,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.24036319101804793,
"scoringSum": 47.95852752918099,
"winRateDifference": 0.23737150666107745
}
game Id 2026_07_NYG_HOU
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.250364763979222,
24.81686223280155
]
home Team HOU
home Win Probability 0.7204570126127223
kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.71161794543162,
62.42523556995318
]
week 7 ← Previous Page 5 of 14 Next → How to read and verify this data JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Original observations, research and definitions are provided in full. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.