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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 2551–2600 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][5]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-13T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][5]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][5]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][5]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.354981682610273number |
| $["games"][5]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.068599307131834number |
| $["games"][5]["week"] | 1number |
| $["games"][6]["awayTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][6]["eloProbability"] | 0.6761643383795457number |
| $["games"][6]["expectedAwayScore"] | 17.734256530867846number |
| $["games"][6]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 8.056035359731803number |
| $["games"][6]["expectedHomeScore"] | 25.790291890599647number |
| $["games"][6]["expectedTotal"] | 43.52454842146749number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -1.1709853758751692number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 40.69950206352683number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 72.89103568095834number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 10.564228989210346number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 9.39324361333517number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 46.23214794183106number |
| $["games"][6]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.18474121804445748number |
| $["games"][6]["gameId"] | 2026_01_CLE_JAXstring |
| $["games"][6]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][6]["gameday"] | 2026-09-13string |
| $["games"][6]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -9.977578138658584number |
| $["games"][6]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 26.08964885812219number |
| $["games"][6]["homeTeam"] | JAXstring |
| $["games"][6]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7582493370140141number |
| $["games"][6]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-13T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][6]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][6]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][6]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.167739609206713number |
| $["games"][6]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.881357233728274number |
| $["games"][6]["week"] | 1number |
| $["games"][7]["awayTeam"] | NOstring |
| $["games"][7]["eloProbability"] | 0.6941830813899991number |
| $["games"][7]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.080231259888123number |
| $["games"][7]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.5865052729049number |
| $["games"][7]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.666736532793024number |
| $["games"][7]["expectedTotal"] | 43.74696779268115number |
| $["games"][7]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 3.722613901081143number |
| $["games"][7]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 44.41923594998656number |
| $["games"][7]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][7]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][7]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 87.40500671136147number |
| $["games"][7]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.