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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 2701–2750 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][9]["week"] | 1number |
| $["games"][10]["awayTeam"] | ARIstring |
| $["games"][10]["eloProbability"] | 0.7093652298540166number |
| $["games"][10]["expectedAwayScore"] | 17.661784826329594number |
| $["games"][10]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 6.357445594002737number |
| $["games"][10]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.019230420332335number |
| $["games"][10]["expectedTotal"] | 41.68101524666193number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -10.00385668000224number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 49.117388990000705number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 100.00893094699518number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 7.453421146374277number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.550435533627965number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 37.888277259628495number |
| $["games"][10]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.24986377159577497number |
| $["games"][10]["gameId"] | 2026_01_ARI_LACstring |
| $["games"][10]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][10]["gameday"] | 2026-09-13string |
| $["games"][10]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -11.67616790438765number |
| $["games"][10]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 24.391059092393125number |
| $["games"][10]["homeTeam"] | LACstring |
| $["games"][10]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7080524328333925number |
| $["games"][10]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-13T20:25:00Zstring |
| $["games"][10]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][10]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][10]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.324206434401148number |
| $["games"][10]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.03782405892271number |
| $["games"][10]["week"] | 1number |
| $["games"][11]["awayTeam"] | GBstring |
| $["games"][11]["eloProbability"] | 0.5984019412377405number |
| $["games"][11]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.66031617684251number |
| $["games"][11]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 4.148907667828978number |
| $["games"][11]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.809223844671493number |
| $["games"][11]["expectedTotal"] | 41.46954002151401number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -7.120264476886593number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.05746254723721number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 14.28055554757998number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 21number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 6.2157014425224135number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][11]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -0.904563034364184number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.