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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 251–300 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][5]["predicted"] | 0.5568097084498206number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][5]["upper"] | 0.6number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][6]["lower"] | 0.6number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][6]["n"] | 97number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][6]["observed"] | 0.6597938144329897number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][6]["predicted"] | 0.647180069137896number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][6]["upper"] | 0.7number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][7]["lower"] | 0.7number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][7]["n"] | 88number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][7]["observed"] | 0.7272727272727273number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][7]["predicted"] | 0.7450356854119607number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][7]["upper"] | 0.8number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][8]["lower"] | 0.8number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][8]["n"] | 45number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][8]["observed"] | 0.9111111111111112number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][8]["predicted"] | 0.8471156445972324number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][8]["upper"] | 0.9number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][9]["lower"] | 0.9number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][9]["n"] | 4number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][9]["observed"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][9]["predicted"] | 0.9104956272481476number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["calibration"][9]["upper"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["expectedCalibrationError"] | 0.027535140635656537number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["logLoss"] | 0.5980858725835057number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["noVigMarket"]["n"] | 569number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["pairedBrierDifference"]["blocks"] | 44number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["pairedBrierDifference"]["estimate"] | 0.010660347532238044number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["pairedBrierDifference"]["lower95"] | 0.003978768422032456number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["pairedBrierDifference"]["lowerIsBetter"] | trueboolean |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["pairedBrierDifference"]["replicates"] | 2000number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["pairedBrierDifference"]["unit"] | season-weekstring |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveMoneyline"]["pairedBrierDifference"]["upper95"] | 0.01850112588037893number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveTotal"]["caveat"] | Final dataset lines; no archived observation timestamp.string |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveTotal"]["lineMae"] | 10.09561403508772number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveTotal"]["modelMae"] | 10.336735251053383number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["retrospectiveTotal"]["n"] | 570number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["ties"] | 1number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["total"]["intervalCoverage"] | 0.8052631578947368number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["total"]["intervalHalfWidth"] | 16.35680881226078number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["total"]["mae"] | 10.336735251053383number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["total"]["nominalCoverage"] | 0.8number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["total"]["rmse"] | 13.208042926517804number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["accuracy"] | 0.5473684210526316number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["brier"] | 0.25number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["lower"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["n"] | 285number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["observed"] | 0.5473684210526316number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["predicted"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["upper"] | 0.6number |
| $["backtest"]["seasons"]["2024"]["baselines"]["coin"]["expectedCalibrationError"] | 0.047368421052631615number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.