← All data & metrics Experimental · Frozen source
NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
Full JSON Download all CSV ↓ Metric formulas & meanings Players, teams & metrics All data points Field dictionary This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
272 matches · 101–120 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_07_SF_ATL
away Team SF
elo Probability 0.4999940606745054
expected Away Score 22.38661524404348
expected Home Margin 1.163706771677116
expected Home Score 23.550322015720592
expected Total 45.93693725976407 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.5392245459696383,
"allowedSum": 47.37278444591895,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": -55.00412706606176,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.4336581418316012,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": -0.10556640413803464,
"scoringSum": 44.74024301835683,
"winRateDifference": 0.055889429212036434
}
game Id 2026_07_SF_ATL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.86990672671327,
19.197320270067504
]
home Team ATL
home Win Probability 0.5274315672598434
kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.58012844750329,
62.29374607202485
]
week 7 2026_07_TB_CAR
away Team TB
elo Probability 0.5282442238201682
expected Away Score 21.648172747142716
expected Home Margin 0.6097082961438769
expected Home Score 22.257881043286595
expected Total 43.90605379042931 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.2937694254656833,
"allowedSum": 45.64160806104683,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -35.352987797023616,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -1.3488229268016427,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.05505350133595854,
"scoringSum": 41.315557760264426,
"winRateDifference": -0.04227301332357564
}
game Id 2026_07_TB_CAR
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.42390520224651,
18.643321794534263
]
home Team CAR
home Win Probability 0.5223135520684741
kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.54924497816853,
60.26286260269009
]
week 7 2026_07_DEN_ARI
away Team DEN
elo Probability 0.3865782884989143
expected Away Score 25.562414026008096
expected Home Margin -6.717977626942151
expected Home Score 18.844436399065945
expected Total 44.40685042507404 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 10.300058975044458,
"allowedSum": 48.82118669495849,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": -135.20867375842204,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -11.547708335855074,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": -1.2476493608106125,
"scoringSum": 41.68636215406707,
"winRateDifference": -0.4336065358102217
}
game Id 2026_07_DEN_ARI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-24.75159112533254,
11.315635871448237
]
home Team ARI
home Win Probability 0.2905170175321784
kickoff 2026-10-25T20:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.05004161281326,
60.76365923733482
]
week 7 2026_07_GB_DET
away Team GB
elo Probability 0.6127089142894376
expected Away Score 20.637397854248352
expected Home Margin 4.786453267185647
expected Home Score 25.423851121434
expected Total 46.06124897568235 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.01793858652805369,
"allowedSum": 48.15978843759575,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 24.68667919447921,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 2.4465550974064074,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 2.428616510878353,
"scoringSum": 44.96437971363129,
"winRateDifference": 0.1243898221919708
}
game Id 2026_07_GB_DET
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.247160231204742,
22.820066765576033
]
home Team DET
home Win Probability 0.6457601047935024
kickoff 2026-10-25T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.704440163421573,
62.418057787943134
]
week 7 2026_07_LA_LV
away Team LAR
elo Probability 0.38221353170740807
expected Away Score 25.859227589992077
expected Home Margin -6.573800468397417
expected Home Score 19.28542712159466
expected Total 45.14465471158674 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.49855810801424383,
"allowedSum": 47.81323732176983,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -138.41293317494342,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -10.777625663081952,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -11.276183771096193,
"scoringSum": 43.447678917802214,
"winRateDifference": -0.2473446854880728
}
game Id 2026_07_LA_LV
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-24.607413966787803,
11.45981302999297
]
home Team LV
home Win Probability 0.27762475386011615
kickoff 2026-10-25T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.78784589932596,
61.50146352384752
]
week 7 2026_07_KC_SEA
away Team KC
elo Probability 0.6771914326760721
expected Away Score 16.885863935369805
expected Home Margin 10.075362097290949
expected Home Score 26.96122603266075
expected Total 43.84708996803056 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.907087250386468,
"allowedSum": 37.872455689540566,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 73.7065610968425,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 11.813318220404302,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 8.906230970017834,
"scoringSum": 44.88287992571205,
"winRateDifference": 0.5416463621029413
}
game Id 2026_07_KC_SEA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-7.95825140109944,
28.108975595681336
]
home Team SEA
home Win Probability 0.7959827194988827
kickoff 2026-10-26T00:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.49028115576978,
60.20389878029134
]
week 7 2026_07_DAL_PHI
away Team DAL
elo Probability 0.6716663161165384
expected Away Score 20.10790310278715
expected Home Margin 5.479443846516432
expected Home Score 25.587346949303583
expected Total 45.695250052090735 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -8.073873868695198,
"allowedSum": 47.36490170384151,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 8,
"eloDifference": 69.33525185420854,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": 5.189765290304434,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.8841085783907623,
"scoringSum": 44.74847349538233,
"winRateDifference": 0.049518464349957325
}
game Id 2026_07_DAL_PHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-26 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.554169651873956,
23.51305734490682
]
home Team PHI
home Win Probability 0.6801804866313597
kickoff 2026-10-27T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.338441239829955,
62.052058864351515
]
week 7 2026_08_CAR_GB
away Team CAR
elo Probability 0.6613324906311284
expected Away Score 20.4766340861618
expected Home Margin 3.9918746892028496
expected Home Score 24.468508775364658
expected Total 44.945142861526456 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.6211747688056448,
"allowedSum": 47.55655225531816,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": 61.25853032814848,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": 0.016454703106589808,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.6376294719122377,
"scoringSum": 41.8981337308407,
"winRateDifference": -0.023999888957936644
}
game Id 2026_08_CAR_GB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-10-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.04173880918754,
22.025488187593236
]
home Team GB
home Win Probability 0.6423152579322963
kickoff 2026-10-30T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.588334049265676,
61.30195167378724
]
week 8 2026_08_ARI_DAL
away Team ARI
elo Probability 0.6671854117198905
expected Away Score 21.197586366969336
expected Home Margin 5.521169803257253
expected Home Score 26.718756170226587
expected Total 47.91634253719592 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.8412350487331215,
"allowedSum": 57.280010621269824,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 65.81767488737114,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 5.43816968899144,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 3.5969346402583113,
"scoringSum": 44.035647433514775,
"winRateDifference": 0.2181248007036245
}
game Id 2026_08_ARI_DAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.512443695133134,
23.55478330164764
]
home Team DAL
home Win Probability 0.6734654346169462
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.559533724935143,
64.2731513494567
]
week 8 2026_08_ATL_TB
away Team ATL
elo Probability 0.5894183006808723
expected Away Score 21.345702000537557
expected Home Margin 1.78286020483952
expected Home Score 23.12856220537708
expected Total 44.47426420591464 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.7428606321840832,
"allowedSum": 45.09069926776523,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 7.809611265357944,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -0.8891720441251241,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.632032676309212,
"scoringSum": 43.0026439379096,
"winRateDifference": -0.217647865301128
}
game Id 2026_08_ATL_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.25075329355087,
19.816473703229907
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.5708305520029149
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.117455393653856,
60.83107301817542
]
week 8 2026_08_BAL_BUF
away Team BAL
elo Probability 0.6381260252588074
expected Away Score 21.27087865622968
expected Home Margin 4.969619052341001
expected Home Score 26.240497708570683
expected Total 47.51137636480036 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.5657719964720194,
"allowedSum": 44.14978956236491,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 43.53964262675072,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 0.7633832365004696,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 1.3291552329724894,
"scoringSum": 50.49598071523114,
"winRateDifference": 0.10481480006771976
}
game Id 2026_08_BAL_BUF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.063994446049389,
23.00323255073139
]
home Team BUF
home Win Probability 0.6514986431008758
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.154567552539586,
63.86818517706114
]
week 8 2026_08_CLE_PIT
away Team CLE
elo Probability 0.6763727303123144
expected Away Score 18.88775610078727
expected Home Margin 4.330602641642069
expected Home Score 23.218358742429334
expected Total 42.10611484321661 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.722873362385812,
"allowedSum": 43.59336080178781,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 73.05639212417555,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -0.3008973021499086,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.4219760602358988,
"scoringSum": 38.26088038873179,
"winRateDifference": 0.036260729894593224
}
game Id 2026_08_CLE_PIT
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.703010856748318,
22.364216140032458
]
home Team PIT
home Win Probability 0.6601626986338937
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.74930603095583,
58.46292365547739
]
week 8 2026_08_IND_JAX
away Team IND
elo Probability 0.631081649339099
expected Away Score 19.889720855091813
expected Home Margin 8.71753509109096
expected Home Score 28.60725594618277
expected Total 48.496976801274585 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.191550870644448,
"allowedSum": 46.72006755829611,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 38.26211741802035,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 11.76113456083288,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 4.569583690188427,
"scoringSum": 51.05580786497781,
"winRateDifference": 0.3804296431434321
}
game Id 2026_08_IND_JAX
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-9.316078407299427,
26.751148589481343
]
home Team JAX
home Win Probability 0.7469406234823012
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
32.140167989013804,
64.85378561353536
]
week 8 2026_08_LV_NYJ
away Team LV
elo Probability 0.5840277131502186
expected Away Score 20.93392802900193
expected Home Margin -0.12981661440914127
expected Home Score 20.804111414592786
expected Total 41.738039443594715 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.846614820946801,
"allowedSum": 53.161294034702394,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 3.947623150434993,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -5.602281395174684,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.24433342577211548,
"scoringSum": 32.415828572478134,
"winRateDifference": -0.0641371814727621
}
game Id 2026_08_LV_NYJ
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.163430112799528,
17.903796883981247
]
home Team NYJ
home Win Probability 0.5066844474971757
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.381230631333935,
58.094848255855496
]
week 8 2026_08_MIN_DET
away Team MIN
elo Probability 0.593030578737629
expected Away Score 21.22398299604222
expected Home Margin 1.5837095672909465
expected Home Score 22.80769256333317
expected Total 44.03167555937539 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 7.102325890358539,
"allowedSum": 41.03952396070916,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 10.406123646899232,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -3.769146345116006,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.333179545242537,
"scoringSum": 44.05981667926711,
"winRateDifference": -0.19717452333990915
}
game Id 2026_08_MIN_DET
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.449903931099442,
19.617323065681333
]
home Team DET
home Win Probability 0.5707918638270172
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.674866747114606,
60.38848437163617
]
week 8 2026_08_TEN_CIN
away Team TEN
elo Probability 0.6775094620364541
expected Away Score 19.575618659599233
expected Home Margin 7.474746063861241
expected Home Score 27.050364723460472
expected Total 46.625983383059705 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.705567902205825,
"allowedSum": 50.459382045605125,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 73.95935526778408,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 9.039374864643314,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 5.333806962437492,
"scoringSum": 44.672052009164936,
"winRateDifference": 0.11602609650017592
}
game Id 2026_08_TEN_CIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-10.558867434529146,
25.508359562251627
]
home Team CIN
home Win Probability 0.7368677353195136
kickoff 2026-11-01T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.269174570798924,
62.982792195320485
]
week 8 2026_08_LAC_LA
away Team LAC
elo Probability 0.6199758788868076
expected Away Score 20.124306461388073
expected Home Margin 4.293235077667195
expected Home Score 24.41754153905527
expected Total 44.541848000443345 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.599131559892804,
"allowedSum": 43.71266386989127,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": 30.02545185942699,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 5.093878921556137,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": 9.693010481448937,
"scoringSum": 45.03085220744947,
"winRateDifference": 0.1183077812294589
}
game Id 2026_08_LAC_LA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.740378420723191,
22.326848576057586
]
home Team LAR
home Win Probability 0.6588046389469757
kickoff 2026-11-01T21:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.185039188182564,
60.898656812704125
]
week 8 2026_08_KC_DEN
away Team KC
elo Probability 0.6414820465650142
expected Away Score 18.005820733378243
expected Home Margin 5.790761859038904
expected Home Score 23.796582592417145
expected Total 41.80240332579539 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.1292076100064996,
"allowedSum": 39.65033532992054,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 46.06943898551481,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 4.607888889598245,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.47868127959174,
"scoringSum": 39.45533023528595,
"winRateDifference": 0.36595388320714695
}
game Id 2026_08_KC_DEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.242851639351484,
23.82437535742929
]
home Team DEN
home Win Probability 0.6929592964375149
kickoff 2026-11-01T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.44559451353461,
58.15921213805617
]
week 8 2026_08_NE_MIA
away Team NE
elo Probability 0.49524173232260166
expected Away Score 23.35694579031427
expected Home Margin -3.284987645115042
expected Home Score 20.07195814519923
expected Total 43.4289039355135 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 6.486192425412959,
"allowedSum": 43.17359941079524,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": -58.30648285214602,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -9.011405101972889,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": -2.5252126765599385,
"scoringSum": 42.44068473108697,
"winRateDifference": -0.19657935276667177
}
game Id 2026_08_NE_MIA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-21.31860114350543,
14.748625853275346
]
home Team MIA
home Win Probability 0.39907958179655784
kickoff 2026-11-01T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.072095123252723,
59.78571274777429
]
week 8 2026_08_PHI_WAS
away Team PHI
elo Probability 0.4591919600656277
expected Away Score 22.369704943696085
expected Home Margin -0.8671823013647657
expected Home Score 21.50252264233132
expected Total 43.87222758602741 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.039225405124981,
"allowedSum": 44.33025324027129,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": -83.41954559236342,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 13,
"marginDifference": -4.985829468766802,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 0.05339593635817863,
"scoringSum": 41.91776085334974,
"winRateDifference": -0.07117968321350648
}
game Id 2026_08_PHI_WAS
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-01 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.90079579975515,
17.166431197025624
]
home Team WAS
home Win Probability 0.4583080081766533
kickoff 2026-11-02T01:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.515418773766623,
60.22903639828819
]
week 8 ← Previous Page 6 of 14 Next → How to read and verify this data JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Original observations, research and definitions are provided in full. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.