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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 3101–3150 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][22]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][22]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 3.0774707233223104number |
| $["games"][22]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 46.08935475893634number |
| $["games"][22]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.05007634090867713number |
| $["games"][22]["gameId"] | 2026_02_NO_BALstring |
| $["games"][22]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][22]["gameday"] | 2026-09-20string |
| $["games"][22]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.955682808817048number |
| $["games"][22]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.11154418796373number |
| $["games"][22]["homeTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][22]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6791195110017261number |
| $["games"][22]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-20T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][22]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][22]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][22]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.855000125634135number |
| $["games"][22]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.568617750155695number |
| $["games"][22]["week"] | 2number |
| $["games"][23]["awayTeam"] | PHIstring |
| $["games"][23]["eloProbability"] | 0.36574449222757865number |
| $["games"][23]["expectedAwayScore"] | 24.56567146747158number |
| $["games"][23]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -5.337403053047581number |
| $["games"][23]["expectedHomeScore"] | 19.228268414424number |
| $["games"][23]["expectedTotal"] | 43.79393988189558number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 7.436961056332322number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 46.72798889147863number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -150.63458099132822number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -8.700020991464378number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -1.263059935132059number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 40.6013049818595number |
| $["games"][23]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.14843173526949976number |
| $["games"][23]["gameId"] | 2026_02_PHI_TENstring |
| $["games"][23]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][23]["gameday"] | 2026-09-20string |
| $["games"][23]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -23.371016551437968number |
| $["games"][23]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 12.696210445342809number |
| $["games"][23]["homeTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][23]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.3183687528020991number |
| $["games"][23]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-20T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][23]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][23]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][23]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.4371310696348number |
| $["games"][23]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.15074869415636number |
| $["games"][23]["week"] | 2number |
| $["games"][24]["awayTeam"] | PITstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.