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NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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272 matches · 121–140 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_08_CHI_SEA
away Team CHI
elo Probability 0.6849158849658984
expected Away Score 19.512399882531945
expected Home Margin 7.362844560334942
expected Home Score 26.875244442866887
expected Total 46.38764432539883 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.109429919010079,
"allowedSum": 40.07479835816417,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 11,
"eloDifference": 79.88429198664016,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": 8.249467352661803,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": 3.140037433651731,
"scoringSum": 50.64907346207815,
"winRateDifference": 0.318829982846436
}
game Id 2026_08_CHI_SEA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-02 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-10.670768938055446,
25.39645805872533
]
home Team SEA
home Win Probability 0.7335808680006395
kickoff 2026-11-03T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.03083551313805,
62.74445313765961
]
week 8 2026_09_JAX_BAL
away Team JAX
elo Probability 0.5846130038102006
expected Away Score 23.688216989999272
expected Home Margin 0.6673584471878669
expected Home Score 24.355575437187134
expected Total 48.04379242718641 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.02775043912062,
"allowedSum": 41.55626712677228,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": 4.366229855656911,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": -5.257033475574415,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.22928303645379,
"scoringSum": 52.39610851871244,
"winRateDifference": -0.17689801068865713
}
game Id 2026_09_JAX_BAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-05 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.366255051202522,
18.700971945578253
]
home Team BAL
home Win Probability 0.5234820268753825
kickoff 2026-11-06T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.68698361492563,
64.40060123944718
]
week 9 2026_09_CIN_ATL
away Team CIN
elo Probability 0.5018044142208762
expected Away Score 23.625053854190156
expected Home Margin -0.7260931094583927
expected Home Score 22.898960744731767
expected Total 46.52401459892192 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.4601271217249945,
"allowedSum": 46.29368702167431,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 1.2538408659215747,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -2.225464056966823,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.685591178691812,
"scoringSum": 47.32026779291061,
"winRateDifference": 0.18708666763431475
}
game Id 2026_09_CIN_ATL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.75970660784878,
17.307520388931994
]
home Team ATL
home Win Probability 0.453437656719139
kickoff 2026-11-08T14:30:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.167205786661142,
62.8808234111827
]
week 9 2026_09_CLE_NO
away Team CLE
elo Probability 0.5903198771960614
expected Away Score 18.63479387928548
expected Home Margin 5.000728079006973
expected Home Score 23.635521958292458
expected Total 42.27031583757793 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.5869326952482936,
"allowedSum": 41.283554744153705,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 8.457005592902533,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 3.673422548807362,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 3.086489853559069,
"scoringSum": 39.92539418205496,
"winRateDifference": 0.05791954826447748
}
game Id 2026_09_CLE_NO
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.032885419383415,
23.03434157739736
]
home Team NO
home Win Probability 0.6643661103280143
kickoff 2026-11-08T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.913507025317152,
58.62712464983871
]
week 9 2026_09_DAL_IND
away Team DAL
elo Probability 0.5659320191503818
expected Away Score 23.58272665941008
expected Home Margin 1.3454472124714156
expected Home Score 24.92817387188149
expected Total 48.51090053129157 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.7635785717980745,
"allowedSum": 54.675197000738635,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -8.917394053778025,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.1903996223062192,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.5731789494918544,
"scoringSum": 47.05940312428123,
"winRateDifference": -0.14859876399141947
}
game Id 2026_09_DAL_IND
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.68816628591897,
19.379060710861804
]
home Team IND
home Win Probability 0.5382752819239291
kickoff 2026-11-08T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
32.15409171903079,
64.86770934355235
]
week 9 2026_09_DEN_CAR
away Team DEN
elo Probability 0.43132965061899126
expected Away Score 22.849273330986783
expected Home Margin -2.210784957864066
expected Home Score 20.63848837312272
expected Total 43.4877617041095 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.20712488329924,
"allowedSum": 42.72825260321328,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -103.0205084061306,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": -5.043878511273853,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": -0.8367536279746126,
"scoringSum": 42.09725788690308,
"winRateDifference": -0.2712031205163526
}
game Id 2026_09_DEN_CAR
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.244398456254455,
15.822828540526322
]
home Team CAR
home Win Probability 0.4245569011358465
kickoff 2026-11-08T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.13095289184872,
59.84457051637028
]
week 9 2026_09_DET_MIA
away Team DET
elo Probability 0.49417343974688954
expected Away Score 23.55979047316231
expected Home Margin -1.4891129627056237
expected Home Score 22.070677510456683
expected Total 45.63046798361899 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.7589709925702515,
"allowedSum": 48.900820843637945,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -59.0488920262726,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.497733077561553,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.738762084991308,
"scoringSum": 43.65423413951834,
"winRateDifference": 0.004693243335783637
}
game Id 2026_09_DET_MIA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.52272646109601,
16.544500535684765
]
home Team MIA
home Win Probability 0.43833857659531833
kickoff 2026-11-08T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.27365917135821,
61.98727679587977
]
week 9 2026_09_LA_WAS
away Team LAR
elo Probability 0.4665173475128321
expected Away Score 25.359175704306463
expected Home Margin -3.113349706279321
expected Home Score 22.245825998027144
expected Total 47.60500170233361 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.5288416078060969,
"allowedSum": 48.84063703759017,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -78.30100165720592,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -6.905194557401343,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -6.376352949595244,
"scoringSum": 48.34750973930316,
"winRateDifference": -0.1717079709851585
}
game Id 2026_09_LA_WAS
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-21.14696320466971,
14.920263792111069
]
home Team WAS
home Win Probability 0.3821091892895877
kickoff 2026-11-08T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.24819289007283,
63.96181051459439
]
week 9 2026_09_NYG_PHI
away Team NYG
elo Probability 0.745718771483889
expected Away Score 19.657873451533575
expected Home Margin 4.46177003835113
expected Home Score 24.1196434898847
expected Total 43.77751694141828 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.517107557094505,
"allowedSum": 41.808135392240814,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": 131.9043097809497,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -0.40979215349118303,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -2.9268997105856904,
"scoringSum": 44.79126462757725,
"winRateDifference": 0.03782542615842577
}
game Id 2026_09_NYG_PHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.571843460039258,
22.495383536741517
]
home Team PHI
home Win Probability 0.671772347243104
kickoff 2026-11-08T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.420708129157497,
60.13432575367906
]
week 9 2026_09_NYJ_KC
away Team NYJ
elo Probability 0.7016649025971471
expected Away Score 16.915394952163638
expected Home Margin 8.096719411615279
expected Home Score 25.012114363778913
expected Total 41.92750931594255 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -9.11418295786108,
"allowedSum": 49.89372589778811,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 93.57016199099348,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 10.77242643658305,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.6582434787219782,
"scoringSum": 34.31840547697223,
"winRateDifference": 0.010962966738675806
}
game Id 2026_09_NYJ_KC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-9.936894086775109,
26.130332910005663
]
home Team KC
home Win Probability 0.7643660410483273
kickoff 2026-11-08T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.57070050368177,
58.28431812820333
]
week 9 2026_09_HOU_LAC
away Team HOU
elo Probability 0.5442059704182836
expected Away Score 22.05789216816481
expected Home Margin -2.2084144699001462
expected Home Score 19.84947769826466
expected Total 41.90736986642947 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.6503664574942505,
"allowedSum": 39.76389876749272,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": -24.202132008867693,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -5.780158039605004,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -6.430524497099253,
"scoringSum": 41.76836622309979,
"winRateDifference": -0.21732557396045857
}
game Id 2026_09_HOU_LAC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.242027968290532,
15.82519902849024
]
home Team LAC
home Win Probability 0.4460091111619537
kickoff 2026-11-08T21:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.55056105416869,
58.26417867869025
]
week 9 2026_09_LV_SF
away Team LV
elo Probability 0.7360052170391141
expected Away Score 17.166397245922308
expected Home Margin 8.959263841932009
expected Home Score 26.125661087854315
expected Total 43.29205833377662 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.7986648890665009,
"allowedSum": 48.11334410282209,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 123.11421931854012,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 5.538492248827925,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 6.337157137894426,
"scoringSum": 38.50865228460045,
"winRateDifference": 0.24560799736937527
}
game Id 2026_09_LV_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-9.07434965645838,
26.99287734032239
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.775464054189952
kickoff 2026-11-08T21:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.935249521515843,
59.64886714603741
]
week 9 2026_09_ARI_SEA
away Team ARI
elo Probability 0.7779951748036928
expected Away Score 16.632241778817278
expected Home Margin 13.7558065629837
expected Home Score 30.388048341800975
expected Total 47.020290120618256 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -12.077938615424426,
"allowedSum": 47.04330705457852,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 162.84579586974974,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 18.753137666661132,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 6.6751990512367065,
"scoringSum": 47.113911844493174,
"winRateDifference": 0.609299014706016
}
game Id 2026_09_ARI_SEA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-4.277806935406689,
31.789420061374088
]
home Team SEA
home Win Probability 0.8654987913627616
kickoff 2026-11-08T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.663481308357476,
63.37709893287904
]
week 9 2026_09_GB_NE
away Team GB
elo Probability 0.6116943038966064
expected Away Score 19.499272476572415
expected Home Margin 5.018189922785108
expected Home Score 24.51746239935752
expected Total 44.016734875929934 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.745160019370761,
"allowedSum": 42.43256700475304,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": 23.944270020352633,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 6.960227121817743,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": 1.2150671024469837,
"scoringSum": 43.750830305199926,
"winRateDifference": 0.3256624182944262
}
game Id 2026_09_GB_NE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.01542357560528,
23.051803421175496
]
home Team NE
home Win Probability 0.6642452637489501
kickoff 2026-11-08T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.65992606366915,
60.373543688190715
]
week 9 2026_09_TB_CHI
away Team TB
elo Probability 0.5999776837523809
expected Away Score 20.734921812923545
expected Home Margin 3.675921776917383
expected Home Score 24.41084358984093
expected Total 45.145765402764475 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.418194820796554,
"allowedSum": 44.7660334563777,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 15.42035073379452,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 2.6510175626164645,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 3.069212383413017,
"scoringSum": 44.4398236450134,
"winRateDifference": 0.08579260324213528
}
game Id 2026_09_TB_CHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-08 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.357691721473005,
21.709535275307772
]
home Team CHI
home Win Probability 0.6259519698885817
kickoff 2026-11-09T01:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.788956590503695,
61.502574215025255
]
week 9 2026_09_BUF_MIN
away Team BUF
elo Probability 0.5282613925820124
expected Away Score 21.728715923584737
expected Home Margin 0.9837874437167586
expected Home Score 22.712503367301498
expected Total 44.44121929088623 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.38918174424316,
"allowedSum": 39.32637981459378,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 8,
"eloDifference": -35.3410195060012,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": -0.16006766284636686,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -5.54924940708953,
"scoringSum": 46.275886541114104,
"winRateDifference": 0.08209540263311266
}
game Id 2026_09_BUF_MIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-09 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.04982605467363,
19.017400942107145
]
home Team MIN
home Win Probability 0.5264932424947696
kickoff 2026-11-10T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.08441047862545,
60.79802810314701
]
week 9 2026_10_WAS_NYG
away Team WAS
elo Probability 0.5093750791429916
expected Away Score 21.64970212360546
expected Home Margin 2.857152330494129
expected Home Score 24.506854454099592
expected Total 46.156556577705054 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.522117848030476,
"allowedSum": 46.847360797365795,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": -48.48476418858627,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": 5.395621622257986,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.873503774227512,
"scoringSum": 44.844660563935435,
"winRateDifference": 0.033354257055080716
}
game Id 2026_10_WAS_NYG
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-12 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.176461167896258,
20.89076582888452
]
home Team NYG
home Win Probability 0.5891735714667292
kickoff 2026-11-13T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.799747765444273,
62.513365389965834
]
week 10 2026_10_NE_DET
away Team NE
elo Probability 0.5010684110596495
expected Away Score 23.202089614226693
expected Home Margin -1.2883683565803974
expected Home Score 21.913721257646294
expected Total 45.11581087187299 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.727221432842708,
"allowedSum": 42.41462841822499,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 0.7424091741265784,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.513672024411336,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.2135494084313692,
"scoringSum": 46.17944681607827,
"winRateDifference": -0.2012725961024554
}
game Id 2026_10_NE_DET
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-15 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.321981854970787,
16.74524514180999
]
home Team DET
home Win Probability 0.4570449608188843
kickoff 2026-11-15T14:30:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.759002059612207,
61.47261968413377
]
week 10 2026_10_BUF_NYJ
away Team BUF
elo Probability 0.36994140709046286
expected Away Score 27.170029252143888
expected Home Margin -8.703632753098079
expected Home Score 18.46639649904581
expected Total 45.6364257511897 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 7.146173648406126,
"allowedSum": 51.861735207243065,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": -147.49919795210735,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -16.728660623382815,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": -9.582486974976687,
"scoringSum": 42.24264897322694,
"winRateDifference": -0.3211827833703008
}
game Id 2026_10_BUF_NYJ
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-15 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-26.737246251488465,
9.329980745292309
]
home Team NYJ
home Win Probability 0.22327278295799569
kickoff 2026-11-15T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.27961693892892,
61.99323456345048
]
week 10 2026_10_CAR_NO
away Team CAR
elo Probability 0.5764463736464295
expected Away Score 20.121347104874147
expected Home Margin 3.6566059902731816
expected Home Score 23.777953095147332
expected Total 43.89930020002148 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.119377718803552,
"allowedSum": 43.81599976770896,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -1.4597971887337735,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 3.995067607146332,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.8756898883427837,
"scoringSum": 42.13619414727125,
"winRateDifference": 0.16073059478178803
}
game Id 2026_10_CAR_NO
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-15 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.377007508117206,
21.69021948866357
]
home Team NO
home Win Probability 0.6209486687691761
kickoff 2026-11-15T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.5424913877607,
60.25610901228226
]
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