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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 3451–3500 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][33]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][33]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 0.32164505833896984number |
| $["games"][33]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][33]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.2107999652162853number |
| $["games"][33]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 39.04970429371218number |
| $["games"][33]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.10281104651731054number |
| $["games"][33]["gameId"] | 2026_03_CAR_CLEstring |
| $["games"][33]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][33]["gameday"] | 2026-09-27string |
| $["games"][33]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.176305985650853number |
| $["games"][33]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.89092101112992number |
| $["games"][33]["homeTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][33]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5641051189687598number |
| $["games"][33]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][33]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][33]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][33]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.26542295408744number |
| $["games"][33]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.979040578609number |
| $["games"][33]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][34]["awayTeam"] | CINstring |
| $["games"][34]["eloProbability"] | 0.6291871851464755number |
| $["games"][34]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.02641547878445number |
| $["games"][34]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.3999607499556956number |
| $["games"][34]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.426376228740143number |
| $["games"][34]["expectedTotal"] | 45.4527917075246number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.7187899896128407number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 46.035024153786466number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 36.85005367679514number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -4.442711271704528number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -5.161501261317369number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.84435771028506number |
| $["games"][34]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.06623756542151488number |
| $["games"][34]["gameId"] | 2026_03_CIN_PITstring |
| $["games"][34]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][34]["gameday"] | 2026-09-27string |
| $["games"][34]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.63365274843469number |
| $["games"][34]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.433574248346083number |
| $["games"][34]["homeTeam"] | PITstring |
| $["games"][34]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5461529718568394number |
| $["games"][34]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][34]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][34]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][34]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.095982895263816number |
| $["games"][34]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.80960051978538number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.