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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 3501–3550 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][34]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][35]["awayTeam"] | HOUstring |
| $["games"][35]["eloProbability"] | 0.48229077117034264number |
| $["games"][35]["expectedAwayScore"] | 24.745915395253476number |
| $["games"][35]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -2.679009575088316number |
| $["games"][35]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.06690582016516number |
| $["games"][35]["expectedTotal"] | 46.81282121541864number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 6.748676601976793number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.16294182696376number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -67.31078212226976number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -7.605009874681621number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -0.8563332727048305number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.34255744749421number |
| $["games"][35]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.3976633088440285number |
| $["games"][35]["gameId"] | 2026_03_HOU_INDstring |
| $["games"][35]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][35]["gameday"] | 2026-09-27string |
| $["games"][35]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -20.712623073478703number |
| $["games"][35]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 15.354603923302072number |
| $["games"][35]["homeTeam"] | INDstring |
| $["games"][35]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.412443436732176number |
| $["games"][35]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][35]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][35]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][35]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.456012403157857number |
| $["games"][35]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.16963002767942number |
| $["games"][35]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][36]["awayTeam"] | KCstring |
| $["games"][36]["eloProbability"] | 0.5358375382698177number |
| $["games"][36]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.815149895296756number |
| $["games"][36]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.7437279810670301number |
| $["games"][36]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.558877876363788number |
| $["games"][36]["expectedTotal"] | 42.37402777166054number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 4.440124448140583number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 45.21966738806762number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -30.0547519242607number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -2.4707128987241633number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][36]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 1.9694115494164104number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.