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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 3601–3650 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][38]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.6614694090607416number |
| $["games"][38]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.91642452064041number |
| $["games"][38]["expectedTotal"] | 46.171379632220074number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.420554851134689number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 38.10796183651697number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -22.22856744917908number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 3.9091922226249824number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 5.329747073759663number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 50.29564448140657number |
| $["games"][38]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.014110264774721548number |
| $["games"][38]["gameId"] | 2026_03_NE_JAXstring |
| $["games"][38]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][38]["gameday"] | 2026-09-27string |
| $["games"][38]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -14.372144089329646number |
| $["games"][38]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 21.69508290745113number |
| $["games"][38]["homeTeam"] | JAXstring |
| $["games"][38]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6244418961460027number |
| $["games"][38]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][38]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][38]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][38]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.814570819959293number |
| $["games"][38]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.528188444480854number |
| $["games"][38]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][39]["awayTeam"] | NYJstring |
| $["games"][39]["eloProbability"] | 0.7353896810150858number |
| $["games"][39]["expectedAwayScore"] | 17.411192293478713number |
| $["games"][39]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 10.514469355834777number |
| $["games"][39]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.92566164931349number |
| $["games"][39]["expectedTotal"] | 45.3368539427922number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -5.433029502290747number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 53.57487935335844number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 122.56430209300538number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 12.79944661542044number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 7.366417113129696number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 40.026579111379945number |
| $["games"][39]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.20610366266350433number |
| $["games"][39]["gameId"] | 2026_03_NYJ_DETstring |
| $["games"][39]["gameType"] | REGstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.