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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 3651–3700 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][39]["gameday"] | 2026-09-27string |
| $["games"][39]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -7.5191441425556125number |
| $["games"][39]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 28.548082854225164number |
| $["games"][39]["homeTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][39]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.8099435608703797number |
| $["games"][39]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][39]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][39]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][39]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.980045130531423number |
| $["games"][39]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.69366275505298number |
| $["games"][39]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][40]["awayTeam"] | SEAstring |
| $["games"][40]["eloProbability"] | 0.4199426011500982number |
| $["games"][40]["expectedAwayScore"] | 25.83220041031838number |
| $["games"][40]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -5.873625605504598number |
| $["games"][40]["expectedHomeScore"] | 19.95857480481378number |
| $["games"][40]["expectedTotal"] | 45.79077521513216number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 7.202055103121086number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.16742354227519number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -111.11241472053348number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -13.11103215613206number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -5.908977053010979number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.8801338427189number |
| $["games"][40]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.41283543286594065number |
| $["games"][40]["gameId"] | 2026_03_SEA_WASstring |
| $["games"][40]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][40]["gameday"] | 2026-09-27string |
| $["games"][40]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -23.907239103894987number |
| $["games"][40]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 12.15998789288579number |
| $["games"][40]["homeTeam"] | WASstring |
| $["games"][40]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.30940262263181895number |
| $["games"][40]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][40]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][40]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][40]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.433966402871377number |
| $["games"][40]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.14758402739294number |
| $["games"][40]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][41]["awayTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][41]["eloProbability"] | 0.6045417606439039number |
| $["games"][41]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.06966949251221number |
| $["games"][41]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.712938190004959number |
| $["games"][41]["expectedHomeScore"] | 25.782607682517177number |
| $["games"][41]["expectedTotal"] | 45.852277175029386number |
| $["games"][41]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -4.919853499237817number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.