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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 3751–3800 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][42]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7405156266970777number |
| $["games"][42]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T20:05:00Zstring |
| $["games"][42]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][42]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][42]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.17859267297385number |
| $["games"][42]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.89221029749541number |
| $["games"][42]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][43]["awayTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][43]["eloProbability"] | 0.521306008811793number |
| $["games"][43]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.354514468852408number |
| $["games"][43]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.47424448466620994number |
| $["games"][43]["expectedHomeScore"] | 20.8802699841862number |
| $["games"][43]["expectedTotal"] | 42.23478445303861number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 5.205320282615265number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 39.14251835296588number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -40.186098078704845number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -4.88333321882736number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 0.32198706378790476number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 41.04862419781247number |
| $["games"][43]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.2552914432503677number |
| $["games"][43]["gameId"] | 2026_03_MIN_TBstring |
| $["games"][43]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][43]["gameday"] | 2026-09-27string |
| $["games"][43]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -18.507857983056596number |
| $["games"][43]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 17.55936901372418number |
| $["games"][43]["homeTeam"] | TBstring |
| $["games"][43]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5002823069583462number |
| $["games"][43]["kickoff"] | 2026-09-27T20:05:00Zstring |
| $["games"][43]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][43]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][43]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.877975640777827number |
| $["games"][43]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.59159326529939number |
| $["games"][43]["week"] | 3number |
| $["games"][44]["awayTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][44]["eloProbability"] | 0.45163771095878913number |
| $["games"][44]["expectedAwayScore"] | 25.544572170820334number |
| $["games"][44]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -3.3673017005615953number |
| $["games"][44]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.17727047025874number |
| $["games"][44]["expectedTotal"] | 47.72184264107908number |
| $["games"][44]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 5.927379003321903number |
| $["games"][44]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 49.5113965692148number |
| $["games"][44]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][44]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][44]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -33.71095321989924number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.