Experimental · Frozen source

NFL game forecasts & backtests

272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.

Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC

Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.

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272 matches · 141–160 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.

2026_10_HOU_CLE

away Team: HOU
elo Probability: 0.432856366915635
expected Away Score: 23.280166328641062
expected Home Margin: -3.282664402545073
expected Home Score: 19.997501926095993
expected Total: 43.27766825473706
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.7281111072075142, "allowedSum": 41.14237633219449, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -101.93970038520774, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -6.408104303059089, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -5.679993195851573, "scoringSum": 42.518897524347466, "winRateDifference": -0.20197488374505385 }
game Id: 2026_10_HOU_CLE
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -21.31627790093546, 14.750949095845314 ]
home Team: CLE
home Win Probability: 0.3889029406002669
kickoff: 2026-11-15T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.92085944247628, 59.63447706699784 ]
week: 10

2026_10_JAX_TEN

away Team: JAX
elo Probability: 0.4205994900811204
expected Away Score: 26.44498002931354
expected Home Margin: -6.603034797819587
expected Home Score: 19.841945231493952
expected Total: 46.28692526080749
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 7.318216630079647, "allowedSum": 46.84673331773131, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 10, "eloDifference": -110.644052501362, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 14, "marginDifference": -15.46178988429904, "restDifference": 4, "scoringDifference": -8.143573254219394, "scoringSum": 47.48181830094684, "winRateDifference": -0.33074415007155505 }
game Id: 2026_10_JAX_TEN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -24.636648296209977, 11.4305787005708 ]
home Team: TEN
home Win Probability: 0.27709232257672317
kickoff: 2026-11-15T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.930116448546713, 62.64373407306827 ]
week: 10

2026_10_KC_ATL

away Team: KC
elo Probability: 0.5367638225256858
expected Away Score: 20.220583804888147
expected Home Margin: 2.589154617977302
expected Home Score: 22.809738422865447
expected Total: 43.030322227753594
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.5270084800111405, "allowedSum": 43.306551419938174, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -29.407692888950123, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 1.8020053492511592, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 4.329013829262298, "scoringSum": 40.30566278495651, "winRateDifference": 0.354671641315498 }
game Id: 2026_10_KC_ATL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -15.444458880413086, 20.622768116367688 ]
home Team: ATL
home Win Probability: 0.5814667108080501
kickoff: 2026-11-15T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.673513415492813, 59.387131040014374 ]
week: 10

2026_10_MIA_IND

away Team: MIA
elo Probability: 0.5754279178454887
expected Away Score: 21.98657301317658
expected Home Margin: 2.2257730734992003
expected Home Score: 24.21234608667578
expected Total: 46.19891909985236
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.1259132963661784, "allowedSum": 51.78570513257438, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -2.1842020150534154, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 1.159462763764993, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 3.285376060131174, "scoringSum": 43.2008481146582, "winRateDifference": -0.1979605551514819 }
game Id: 2026_10_MIA_IND
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -15.807840424891188, 20.25938657188959 ]
home Team: IND
home Win Probability: 0.5803868320280962
kickoff: 2026-11-15T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.84211028759158, 62.55572791211314 ]
week: 10

2026_10_MIN_GB

away Team: MIN
elo Probability: 0.5583331505157645
expected Away Score: 21.540152893820768
expected Home Margin: -0.05779169366979442
expected Home Score: 21.482361200150976
expected Total: 43.02251409397174
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 7.120264476886593, "allowedSum": 41.05746254723721, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 6, "eloDifference": -14.28055554757998, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -6.2157014425224135, "restDifference": 1, "scoringDifference": 0.904563034364184, "scoringSum": 41.63120016838876, "winRateDifference": -0.32156434553187996 }
game Id: 2026_10_MIN_GB
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.091405192060183, 17.975821804720592 ]
home Team: GB
home Win Probability: 0.5167239316089958
kickoff: 2026-11-15T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.665705281710963, 59.37932290623253 ]
week: 10

2026_10_LA_ARI

away Team: LAR
elo Probability: 0.3936649323327375
expected Away Score: 27.6310683169269
expected Home Margin: -6.911334451133552
expected Home Score: 20.719733865793344
expected Total: 48.35080218272024
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 5.404725120109436, "allowedSum": 53.71652054989352, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -130.03438280642217, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -12.547300067930417, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -7.142574947820972, "scoringSum": 47.58128774107743, "winRateDifference": -0.36817155282523384 }
game Id: 2026_10_LA_ARI
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -24.94494794952394, 11.122279047256836 ]
home Team: ARI
home Win Probability: 0.2672864938662328
kickoff: 2026-11-15T21:05:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 31.993993370459464, 64.70761099498102 ]
week: 10

2026_10_SEA_LV

away Team: SEA
elo Probability: 0.3387115838186128
expected Away Score: 26.33225229600399
expected Home Margin: -9.334076367622693
expected Home Score: 16.998175928381297
expected Total: 43.33042822438529
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 6.174655387300746, "allowedSum": 41.14002382645484, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -171.22434623827098, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -16.98346326181267, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -10.808807874511928, "scoringSum": 42.98030302121795, "winRateDifference": -0.48847214736885497 }
game Id: 2026_10_SEA_LV
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -27.36768986601308, 8.699537130767695 ]
home Team: LV
home Win Probability: 0.21779160051401117
kickoff: 2026-11-15T21:05:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.973619412124503, 59.68723703664607 ]
week: 10

2026_10_SF_DAL

away Team: SF
elo Probability: 0.5087518161794561
expected Away Score: 23.88894845981694
expected Home Margin: -0.1914857280162625
expected Home Score: 23.69746273180068
expected Total: 47.58641119161762
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 3.2633832903240574, "allowedSum": 52.17539228221265, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -48.91799406264772, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -1.8699969646849477, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 1.3933863256391064, "scoringSum": 46.23919574813398, "winRateDifference": -0.1483100640029118 }
game Id: 2026_10_SF_DAL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.22509922640665, 17.842127770374127 ]
home Team: DAL
home Win Probability: 0.4863978096015638
kickoff: 2026-11-15T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 31.22960237935684, 63.9432200038784 ]
week: 10

2026_10_PIT_CIN

away Team: PIT
elo Probability: 0.5260961380112174
expected Away Score: 21.71804307680596
expected Home Margin: 1.5029027068476273
expected Home Score: 23.220945783653587
expected Total: 44.938988860459546
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.7187899896128407, "allowedSum": 46.035024153786466, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 14, "eloDifference": -36.85005367679514, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 4.442711271704528, "restDifference": -7, "scoringDifference": 5.161501261317369, "scoringSum": 44.84435771028506, "winRateDifference": -0.06623756542151488 }
game Id: 2026_10_PIT_CIN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-15
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.53071079154276, 19.536516205238016 ]
home Team: CIN
home Win Probability: 0.5621974834354692
kickoff: 2026-11-16T01:20:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.582180048198765, 61.295797672720326 ]
week: 10

2026_10_LAC_BAL

away Team: LAC
elo Probability: 0.5778224313350214
expected Away Score: 19.25793444282925
expected Home Margin: 4.77358219824037
expected Home Score: 24.03151664106962
expected Total: 43.28945108389887
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.2352426279472155, "allowedSum": 41.34877493794568, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 8, "eloDifference": -0.4803028397247999, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 11, "marginDifference": 4.679249250181846, "restDifference": 3, "scoringDifference": 6.914491878129059, "scoringSum": 42.25233360412959, "winRateDifference": 0.023193897571205047 }
game Id: 2026_10_LAC_BAL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-16
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -13.260031300150018, 22.807195696630757 ]
home Team: BAL
home Win Probability: 0.6629416752015884
kickoff: 2026-11-17T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.932642271638088, 59.64625989615965 ]
week: 10

2026_11_IND_HOU

away Team: IND
elo Probability: 0.6690911765466836
expected Away Score: 20.129230750823623
expected Home Margin: 7.0657032319696675
expected Home Score: 27.194933982793287
expected Total: 47.32416473361691
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -6.748676601976793, "allowedSum": 47.16294182696376, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 4, "eloDifference": 67.31078212226976, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 4, "marginDifference": 7.605009874681621, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 0.8563332727048305, "scoringSum": 47.34255744749421, "winRateDifference": 0.3976633088440285 }
game Id: 2026_11_IND_HOU
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-19
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -10.96791026642072, 25.099316730360055 ]
home Team: HOU
home Win Probability: 0.7143692493772238
kickoff: 2026-11-20T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.96735592135613, 63.68097354587769 ]
week: 11

2026_11_ARI_KC

away Team: ARI
elo Probability: 0.6962982878311946
expected Away Score: 18.52872215562691
expected Home Margin: 6.5147297234133426
expected Home Score: 25.043451879040255
expected Total: 43.57217403466717
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -9.170851365037958, "allowedSum": 49.95039430496499, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 89.13923477290723, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 6.93981944625683, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -2.2310319187811274, "scoringSum": 38.20768087447534, "winRateDifference": 0.06765265260307474 }
game Id: 2026_11_ARI_KC
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -11.518883774977043, 24.54834322180373 ]
home Team: KC
home Win Probability: 0.7157169904241542
kickoff: 2026-11-22T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.215365222406383, 59.928982846927944 ]
week: 11

2026_11_BAL_CAR

away Team: BAL
elo Probability: 0.4822481110186462
expected Away Score: 23.670668488996093
expected Home Margin: -1.7986094965934742
expected Home Score: 21.87205899240262
expected Total: 45.542727481398714
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.6756799603098074, "allowedSum": 45.25969752620271, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 6, "eloDifference": -67.34046275497894, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -5.628840571974901, "restDifference": 1, "scoringDifference": -3.953160611665094, "scoringSum": 45.21366487059356, "winRateDifference": -0.1106542538731109 }
game Id: 2026_11_BAL_CAR
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -19.832222994983866, 16.235004001796913 ]
home Team: CAR
home Win Probability: 0.431446191135293
kickoff: 2026-11-22T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.185918669137937, 61.899536293659494 ]
week: 11

2026_11_JAX_NYG

away Team: JAX
elo Probability: 0.4470757901379483
expected Away Score: 24.89443924355756
expected Home Margin: -2.350594147738444
expected Home Score: 22.54384509581912
expected Total: 47.43828433937668
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.3983631308418296, "allowedSum": 41.92687981849349, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -91.91378129098348, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 10, "marginDifference": -6.35197673934348, "restDifference": 3, "scoringDifference": -3.953613608501645, "scoringSum": 51.67177794666459, "winRateDifference": -0.22013784096048103 }
game Id: 2026_11_JAX_NYG
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -20.384207646128832, 15.683019350651945 ]
home Team: NYG
home Win Probability: 0.4073498133372477
kickoff: 2026-11-22T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 31.0814755271159, 63.79509315163746 ]
week: 11

2026_11_MIA_BUF

away Team: MIA
elo Probability: 0.6899862450501287
expected Away Score: 19.292719108313573
expected Home Margin: 7.801476656562732
expected Home Score: 27.094195764876307
expected Total: 46.38691487318988
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -2.4721151386856306, "allowedSum": 47.18767669752257, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 83.98378788537457, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 8.426947085523926, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 5.954831946838301, "scoringSum": 45.87030400136533, "winRateDifference": 0.11038587737101284 }
game Id: 2026_11_MIA_BUF
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -10.232136841827655, 25.83509015495312 ]
home Team: BUF
home Win Probability: 0.7483351504468349
kickoff: 2026-11-22T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.0301060609291, 62.74372368545066 ]
week: 11

2026_11_NO_CHI

away Team: NO
elo Probability: 0.6496004824792228
expected Away Score: 20.00186379759789
expected Home Margin: 4.930609997703629
expected Home Score: 24.932473795301515
expected Total: 44.9343375928994
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.2438031141344226, "allowedSum": 42.94042516303983, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 52.23313571955191, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 14, "marginDifference": 0.004772882271775192, "restDifference": 7, "scoringDifference": 2.248575996406192, "scoringSum": 45.26046003202022, "winRateDifference": -0.03266497821607711 }
game Id: 2026_11_NO_CHI
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -13.10300350068676, 22.964223496094014 ]
home Team: CHI
home Win Probability: 0.6630951486688795
kickoff: 2026-11-22T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.577528780638623, 61.291146405160184 ]
week: 11

2026_11_TB_DET

away Team: TB
elo Probability: 0.6474473921089345
expected Away Score: 20.931635239796883
expected Home Margin: 2.868889402565237
expected Home Score: 23.80052464236212
expected Total: 44.732159882159
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.8970056077432744, "allowedSum": 46.24484424332442, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 14, "eloDifference": 50.59222172560408, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 1.1141868737113545, "restDifference": -7, "scoringDifference": 3.011192481454632, "scoringSum": 44.381803743055016, "winRateDifference": 0.05811691991045853 }
game Id: 2026_11_TB_DET
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -15.16472409582515, 20.902502900955625 ]
home Team: DET
home Win Probability: 0.6125525736843265
kickoff: 2026-11-22T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.375351069898223, 61.08896869441978 ]
week: 11

2026_11_TEN_DAL

away Team: TEN
elo Probability: 0.6866711036134817
expected Away Score: 20.754753368919836
expected Home Margin: 5.555524003283654
expected Home Score: 26.310277372203487
expected Total: 47.06503074112332
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.6369128123628762, "allowedSum": 54.80186276017383, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 81.29932913711968, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 3.5102557011599425, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 4.147168513522821, "scoringSum": 43.485413560250265, "winRateDifference": 0.09891327091954244 }
game Id: 2026_11_TEN_DAL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -12.478089495106731, 23.58913750167404 ]
home Team: DAL
home Win Probability: 0.6820613571665322
kickoff: 2026-11-22T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.708221928862542, 63.4218395533841 ]
week: 11

2026_11_NYJ_LAC

away Team: NYJ
elo Probability: 0.7145955867847327
expected Away Score: 16.509627934761568
expected Home Margin: 8.601327740373671
expected Home Score: 25.110955675135237
expected Total: 41.620583609896805
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -9.94718827282536, "allowedSum": 49.06072058282383, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 104.43985816508145, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": 11.286028136700498, "restDifference": -1, "scoringDifference": 1.3388398638751404, "scoringSum": 33.9990018621254, "winRateDifference": 0.193174085731376 }
game Id: 2026_11_NYJ_LAC
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -9.432285758016716, 26.634941238764057 ]
home Team: LAC
home Win Probability: 0.7744056836320216
kickoff: 2026-11-22T21:05:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.263774797636025, 57.977392422157585 ]
week: 11

2026_11_LV_DEN

away Team: LV
elo Probability: 0.7582593380089827
expected Away Score: 15.26761427913396
expected Home Margin: 11.148092405011951
expected Home Score: 26.41570668414591
expected Total: 41.68332096327987
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -4.3967757469207776, "allowedSum": 42.917903466834815, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 143.58722412694328, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 14, "marginDifference": 9.778033931006611, "restDifference": 7, "scoringDifference": 5.381258184085834, "scoringSum": 37.55275333079186, "winRateDifference": 0.31277966847306066 }
game Id: 2026_11_LV_DEN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-11-22
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -6.8855210933784345, 29.18170590340234 ]
home Team: DEN
home Win Probability: 0.8258505437207802
kickoff: 2026-11-22T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.326512151019088, 58.04012977554065 ]
week: 11

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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316

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