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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 4001–4050 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][50]["gameId"] | 2026_04_ARI_NYGstring |
| $["games"][50]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][50]["gameday"] | 2026-10-04string |
| $["games"][50]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.080194679929054number |
| $["games"][50]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.98703231685172number |
| $["games"][50]["homeTeam"] | NYGstring |
| $["games"][50]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6817822742891424number |
| $["games"][50]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-04T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][50]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][50]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][50]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.32231047701861number |
| $["games"][50]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.03592810154017number |
| $["games"][50]["week"] | 4number |
| $["games"][51]["awayTeam"] | DALstring |
| $["games"][51]["eloProbability"] | 0.6576287330627536number |
| $["games"][51]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.450825476934803number |
| $["games"][51]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 6.496439268996584number |
| $["games"][51]["expectedHomeScore"] | 26.947264745931385number |
| $["games"][51]["expectedTotal"] | 47.39809022286619number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -7.512255173774868number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.92652039876184number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 58.39338806849173number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 7.79540949698784number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 0.28315432321297607number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.91573639698606number |
| $["games"][51]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.24906454485260895number |
| $["games"][51]["gameId"] | 2026_04_DAL_HOUstring |
| $["games"][51]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][51]["gameday"] | 2026-10-04string |
| $["games"][51]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -11.537174229393804number |
| $["games"][51]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 24.53005276738697number |
| $["games"][51]["homeTeam"] | HOUstring |
| $["games"][51]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7004501128550701number |
| $["games"][51]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-04T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][51]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][51]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][51]["totalInterval80"][0] | 31.041281410605407number |
| $["games"][51]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.75489903512697number |
| $["games"][51]["week"] | 4number |
| $["games"][52]["awayTeam"] | GBstring |
| $["games"][52]["eloProbability"] | 0.5417726921974393number |
| $["games"][52]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.4334025633251number |
| $["games"][52]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.183044385869524number |
| $["games"][52]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.61644694919462number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.