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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 4201–4250 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][56]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][56]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][56]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.729999939725843number |
| $["games"][56]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.44361756424741number |
| $["games"][56]["week"] | 4number |
| $["games"][57]["awayTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][57]["eloProbability"] | 0.7268418241830576number |
| $["games"][57]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.481354689151637number |
| $["games"][57]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 9.10927975495174number |
| $["games"][57]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.59063444410338number |
| $["games"][57]["expectedTotal"] | 46.071989133255016number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -5.290466190959027number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 48.87448375685193number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 115.01028235701892number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 10.204756408724624number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 4.914290217765604number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.25253526449305number |
| $["games"][57]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.15384613938289793number |
| $["games"][57]["gameId"] | 2026_04_TEN_BALstring |
| $["games"][57]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][57]["gameday"] | 2026-10-04string |
| $["games"][57]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -8.924333743438646number |
| $["games"][57]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 27.14289325334213number |
| $["games"][57]["homeTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][57]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7812668397354429number |
| $["games"][57]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-04T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][57]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][57]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][57]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.715180320994236number |
| $["games"][57]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.4287979455158number |
| $["games"][57]["week"] | 4number |
| $["games"][58]["awayTeam"] | MIAstring |
| $["games"][58]["eloProbability"] | 0.6448816583080152number |
| $["games"][58]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.054287468114104number |
| $["games"][58]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 6.545103145821269number |
| $["games"][58]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.59939061393537number |
| $["games"][58]["expectedTotal"] | 42.653678082049474number |
| $["games"][58]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -7.861296882928791number |
| $["games"][58]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.79849495327941number |
| $["games"][58]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][58]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][58]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 48.642768379373365number |
| $["games"][58]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][58]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
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JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.