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NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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272 matches · 161–180 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_11_PIT_PHI
away Team PIT
elo Probability 0.6331739824143584
expected Away Score 18.53955934797902
expected Home Margin 5.7642658860461164
expected Home Score 24.303825234025137
expected Total 42.843384582004155 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.0126031645136564,
"allowedSum": 42.303630999659966,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 39.825172046749,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 4.103357398525591,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 1.0907542340119356,
"scoringSum": 40.77361068297962,
"winRateDifference": -0.033831926652191036
}
game Id 2026_11_PIT_PHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-22 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.269347612344273,
23.797879384436506
]
home Team PHI
home Win Probability 0.6902454001056633
kickoff 2026-11-22T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.486575769743375,
59.200193394264936
]
week 11 2026_11_MIN_SF
away Team MIN
elo Probability 0.510084556081176
expected Away Score 22.326721665592256
expected Home Margin -1.2377694013184128
expected Home Score 21.088952264273846
expected Total 43.4156739298661 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 7.487405460768986,
"allowedSum": 41.4246035311196,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 7.008417721998967,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -5.427819316533838,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.0595861442351513,
"scoringSum": 42.786223278259726,
"winRateDifference": -0.0935330071612761
}
game Id 2026_11_MIN_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-22 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.2713828997088,
16.795844097071974
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.4612739852123748
kickoff 2026-11-23T01:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.05886511760532,
59.77248274212688
]
week 11 2026_11_CIN_WAS
away Team CIN
elo Probability 0.569002373981406
expected Away Score 23.076488348684418
expected Home Margin 0.12914252339504315
expected Home Score 23.205630872079464
expected Total 46.28211922076388 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.3078322509984837,
"allowedSum": 48.06164639439778,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 8,
"eloDifference": -6.744319868819275,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 11,
"marginDifference": -5.32518334194574,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": -4.017351090947255,
"scoringSum": 45.98850788065518,
"winRateDifference": -0.03877404444418264
}
game Id 2026_11_CIN_WAS
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-23 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.904470974995345,
18.16275602178543
]
home Team WAS
home Win Probability 0.4948691877271671
kickoff 2026-11-24T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.9253104085031,
62.63892803302466
]
week 11 2026_12_GB_LA
away Team GB
elo Probability 0.6288347465784374
expected Away Score 20.962443209528814
expected Home Margin 5.581754620539774
expected Home Score 26.54419783006859
expected Total 47.50664103959741 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.06703420283013628,
"allowedSum": 48.24476122695394,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": 36.58768712598226,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 6.027015540242602,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 6.094049743072734,
"scoringSum": 48.62981294582568,
"winRateDifference": 0.2297680264893014
}
game Id 2026_12_GB_LA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-25 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.451858877850611,
23.615368118930164
]
home Team LAR
home Win Probability 0.6753092782131426
kickoff 2026-11-26T01:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.14983222733663,
63.86344985185819
]
week 12 2026_12_CHI_DET
away Team CHI
elo Probability 0.626930512876404
expected Away Score 22.17267582039245
expected Home Margin 2.80175518694789
expected Home Score 24.974431007340335
expected Total 47.147106827732784 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.4788107869467204,
"allowedSum": 46.66303906412098,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": 35.171870991809556,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": -1.53683068890511,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.058019901958385134,
"scoringSum": 47.45101612646803,
"winRateDifference": -0.027675683331676748
}
game Id 2026_12_CHI_DET
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-26 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.231858311442496,
20.83536868533828
]
home Team DET
home Win Probability 0.595773203245531
kickoff 2026-11-26T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.790298015472004,
63.503915639993565
]
week 12 2026_12_PHI_DAL
away Team PHI
elo Probability 0.4793816131667354
expected Away Score 23.700214558123225
expected Home Margin -1.242376589687744
expected Home Score 22.45783796843548
expected Total 46.158052526558706 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 8.073873868695198,
"allowedSum": 47.36490170384151,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": -69.33525185420854,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": -5.189765290304434,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.8841085783907623,
"scoringSum": 44.74847349538233,
"winRateDifference": -0.049518464349957325
}
game Id 2026_12_PHI_DAL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-26 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.27599008807813,
16.791236908702643
]
home Team DAL
home Win Probability 0.4527249580921902
kickoff 2026-11-26T21:30:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.801243714297925,
62.514861338819486
]
week 12 2026_12_KC_BUF
away Team KC
elo Probability 0.6518193357682781
expected Away Score 19.008623840103944
expected Home Margin 6.841453672680355
expected Home Score 25.850077512784303
expected Total 44.85870135288825 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.968009309454953,
"allowedSum": 42.74755224938198,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": 53.92903596111387,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": 5.956234186799763,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 7.924243496254711,
"scoringSum": 43.90089245194892,
"winRateDifference": 0.310219816631625
}
game Id 2026_12_KC_BUF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-26 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.192159825710032,
24.875067171070743
]
home Team BUF
home Win Probability 0.7208984029688299
kickoff 2026-11-27T01:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.501892540627463,
61.21551016514903
]
week 12 2026_12_DEN_PIT
away Team DEN
elo Probability 0.5217443827274088
expected Away Score 21.901875830692163
expected Home Margin -0.5962959208188305
expected Home Score 21.30557990987333
expected Total 43.20745574056549 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.397553222129794,
"allowedSum": 41.91868094204383,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 5,
"eloDifference": -39.88091906359136,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 5,
"marginDifference": -5.023130755084791,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.625577532954999,
"scoringSum": 41.30843398192269,
"winRateDifference": -0.13213134410444882
}
game Id 2026_12_DEN_PIT
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-27 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.62990941920922,
17.437317577571555
]
home Team PIT
home Win Probability 0.48705102193726
kickoff 2026-11-27T20:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.850646928304712,
59.56426455282627
]
week 12 2026_12_ATL_MIN
away Team ATL
elo Probability 0.6440281914512248
expected Away Score 19.431260942480975
expected Home Margin 3.602923593645201
expected Home Score 23.034184536126176
expected Total 42.46544547860715 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.948180914799348,
"allowedSum": 39.88537898514997,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": 47.99570934406279,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 3.9941611747022367,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -1.9540197400971169,
"scoringSum": 42.68065687412169,
"winRateDifference": 0.03764357794923967
}
game Id 2026_12_ATL_MIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.430689904745186,
21.63653709203559
]
home Team MIN
home Win Probability 0.6399076313389506
kickoff 2026-11-29T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.10863666634637,
58.82225429086793
]
week 12 2026_12_BAL_HOU
away Team BAL
elo Probability 0.6127031165410739
expected Away Score 21.132135888922797
expected Home Margin 3.995237868837082
expected Home Score 25.127373757759877
expected Total 46.25950964668267 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.584876170452965,
"allowedSum": 41.999141395439935,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 24.682434848592493,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 1.100908789423158,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": -0.48396738102980663,
"scoringSum": 48.682858101228845,
"winRateDifference": 0.1941316763892535
}
game Id 2026_12_BAL_HOU
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.038375629553304,
22.02885136722747
]
home Team HOU
home Win Probability 0.6236124044745717
kickoff 2026-11-29T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.902700834421893,
62.616318458943454
]
week 12 2026_12_LV_CLE
away Team LV
elo Probability 0.6208224419224471
expected Away Score 17.41573418461335
expected Home Margin 5.848145121188033
expected Home Score 23.26387930580138
expected Total 40.67961349041473 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.7220958871767955,
"allowedSum": 44.59258332657879,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 30.649912939176374,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": 5.055800478071729,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": 2.3337045908949356,
"scoringSum": 34.50519973760096,
"winRateDifference": 0.1443875944740186
}
game Id 2026_12_LV_CLE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.185468377202357,
23.88175861957842
]
home Team CLE
home Win Probability 0.6910645836397985
kickoff 2026-11-29T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
24.32280467815395,
57.03642230267551
]
week 12 2026_12_NO_CIN
away Team NO
elo Probability 0.6168840629497608
expected Away Score 21.23602922218473
expected Home Margin 3.305979584241451
expected Home Score 24.54200880642618
expected Total 45.77803802861091 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.028596047246946,
"allowedSum": 43.72521809615236,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 27.74933285447787,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 0.4683914207472575,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 3.496987467994199,
"scoringSum": 46.50887150360823,
"winRateDifference": -0.08789638379139914
}
game Id 2026_12_NO_CIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.727633914148935,
21.33959308263184
]
home Team CIN
home Win Probability 0.6209476379435542
kickoff 2026-11-29T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.421229216350127,
62.13484684087169
]
week 12 2026_12_NYG_IND
away Team NYG
elo Probability 0.6514568795633959
expected Away Score 22.550011811386852
expected Home Margin 2.0445089206101628
expected Home Score 24.594520731997015
expected Total 47.14453254338387 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.793187739802619,
"allowedSum": 49.11843068913794,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 53.65166387296313,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": -5.409157821489398,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": -0.6159700816867826,
"scoringSum": 47.10219425647616,
"winRateDifference": -0.16029180218295103
}
game Id 2026_12_NYG_IND
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.989104577780225,
20.07812241900055
]
home Team IND
home Win Probability 0.5718048717837352
kickoff 2026-11-29T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.787723731123087,
63.50134135564465
]
week 12 2026_12_NYJ_MIA
away Team NYJ
elo Probability 0.6642361261179797
expected Away Score 18.648896024975578
expected Home Margin 6.555831791927268
expected Home Score 25.20472781690284
expected Total 43.85362384187842 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.674058509720496,
"allowedSum": 54.333850345928695,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 63.515410066732784,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 8.301713537858888,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.627655028138389,
"scoringSum": 36.28781702638864,
"winRateDifference": 0.21079690599928796
}
game Id 2026_12_NYJ_MIA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.47778170646312,
24.589445290317656
]
home Team MIA
home Win Probability 0.7118090008000242
kickoff 2026-11-29T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.496815029617636,
60.2104326541392
]
week 12 2026_12_TEN_JAX
away Team TEN
elo Probability 0.7218232932272266
expected Away Score 17.93391602246322
expected Home Margin 11.23370301401688
expected Home Score 29.1676190364801
expected Total 47.10153505894332 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.318216630079647,
"allowedSum": 46.84673331773131,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 110.644052501362,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 15.46178988429904,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 8.143573254219394,
"scoringSum": 47.48181830094684,
"winRateDifference": 0.33074415007155505
}
game Id 2026_12_TEN_JAX
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-6.799910484373507,
29.26731651240727
]
home Team JAX
home Win Probability 0.82252958760691
kickoff 2026-11-29T21:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.74472624668254,
63.4583438712041
]
week 12 2026_12_SEA_SF
away Team SEA
elo Probability 0.5099140248598669
expected Away Score 25.14326270017049
expected Home Margin -4.589201753544206
expected Home Score 20.554060946626286
expected Total 45.697323646796775 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 6.973320276367247,
"allowedSum": 41.938688715521344,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": -48.110126919730874,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -11.444971012984745,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -4.471650736617502,
"scoringSum": 49.31746015911237,
"winRateDifference": -0.2428641499994797
}
game Id 2026_12_SEA_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-22.622815251934593,
13.444411744846182
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.3584315699483642
kickoff 2026-11-29T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.340514834535995,
62.05413245905755
]
week 12 2026_12_WAS_ARI
away Team WAS
elo Probability 0.5047009039010452
expected Away Score 23.799951891240795
expected Home Margin -1.6849742124481435
expected Home Score 22.11497767879265
expected Total 45.91492957003344 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.875883512303339,
"allowedSum": 54.24536215769961,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": -51.73338114921626,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -5.642105510529072,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": -0.7662219982257277,
"scoringSum": 41.20493479148219,
"winRateDifference": -0.19646358184007537
}
game Id 2026_12_WAS_ARI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.71858771083853,
16.348639285942244
]
home Team ARI
home Win Probability 0.438547721797356
kickoff 2026-11-29T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.558120757772663,
62.271738382294224
]
week 12 2026_12_NE_LAC
away Team NE
elo Probability 0.5539260416925514
expected Away Score 21.331772030166757
expected Home Margin -1.8801181886529128
expected Home Score 19.45165384151384
expected Total 40.7834258716806 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.2130626623080936,
"allowedSum": 37.90046964769037,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": -17.38203475379737,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -6.027090503131278,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -4.8140278408231865,
"scoringSum": 40.15186956682372,
"winRateDifference": -0.21420217303458372
}
game Id 2026_12_NE_LAC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-29 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.9137316870433,
16.153495309737476
]
home Team LAC
home Win Probability 0.46277503890141664
kickoff 2026-11-30T01:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
24.42661705941982,
57.14023468394138
]
week 12 2026_12_CAR_TB
away Team CAR
elo Probability 0.6271743310508905
expected Away Score 20.133381494120197
expected Home Margin 3.541558625502739
expected Home Score 23.674940119622935
expected Total 43.80832161374313 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.2937694254656833,
"allowedSum": 45.64160806104683,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 8,
"eloDifference": 35.352987797023616,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": 1.3488229268016427,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.05505350133595854,
"scoringSum": 41.315557760264426,
"winRateDifference": 0.04227301332357564
}
game Id 2026_12_CAR_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-11-30 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.492054872887648,
21.575172123893125
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.6247109417562632
kickoff 2026-12-01T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.45151280148235,
60.16513042600391
]
week 12 2026_13_KC_LA
away Team KC
elo Probability 0.6346033879583552
expected Away Score 19.611148920695538
expected Home Margin 6.3560346564806895
expected Home Score 25.967183577176225
expected Total 45.57833249787176 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.7661262449285218,
"allowedSum": 44.545669184855555,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 40.89514803351494,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": 5.607480621673584,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": 9.3736068666021,
"scoringSum": 45.350255822296305,
"winRateDifference": 0.3005189002221591
}
game Id 2026_13_KC_LA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.677578841909698,
24.389648154871075
]
home Team LAR
home Win Probability 0.7033715203545398
kickoff 2026-12-04T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.221523685610983,
61.93514131013254
]
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