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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 4451–4500 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][64]["gameday"] | 2026-10-08string |
| $["games"][64]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.49350678039519number |
| $["games"][64]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.573720216385585number |
| $["games"][64]["homeTeam"] | DALstring |
| $["games"][64]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5506581750915878number |
| $["games"][64]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-09T00:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][64]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][64]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][64]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.298447582015974number |
| $["games"][64]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.012065206537535number |
| $["games"][64]["week"] | 5number |
| $["games"][65]["awayTeam"] | PHIstring |
| $["games"][65]["eloProbability"] | 0.521586938258575number |
| $["games"][65]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.796589172169703number |
| $["games"][65]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 4.264521734100399number |
| $["games"][65]["expectedHomeScore"] | 25.061110906270105number |
| $["games"][65]["expectedTotal"] | 45.857700078439805number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 0.11874442625267534number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 39.409772261398984number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -39.99052848996621number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 6.761768892834663number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 6.880513319087335number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 48.7448782360789number |
| $["games"][65]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.1823124148020553number |
| $["games"][65]["gameId"] | 2026_05_PHI_JAXstring |
| $["games"][65]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][65]["gameday"] | 2026-10-11string |
| $["games"][65]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -13.769091764289987number |
| $["games"][65]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 22.298135232490782number |
| $["games"][65]["homeTeam"] | JAXstring |
| $["games"][65]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6359354766123881number |
| $["games"][65]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-11T13:30:00Zstring |
| $["games"][65]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][65]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][65]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.500891266179025number |
| $["games"][65]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.214508890700586number |
| $["games"][65]["week"] | 5number |
| $["games"][66]["awayTeam"] | CINstring |
| $["games"][66]["eloProbability"] | 0.5793482248219273number |
| $["games"][66]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.219560428686396number |
| $["games"][66]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.4382207840507184number |
| $["games"][66]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.781339644635676number |
| $["games"][66]["expectedTotal"] | 46.00090007332207number |
| $["games"][66]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.4529888464044485number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.