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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 4551–4600 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][67]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.40306672182016495number |
| $["games"][67]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-11T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][67]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][67]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][67]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.39471230161889number |
| $["games"][67]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.10832992614045number |
| $["games"][67]["week"] | 5number |
| $["games"][68]["awayTeam"] | HOUstring |
| $["games"][68]["eloProbability"] | 0.38047549805206055number |
| $["games"][68]["expectedAwayScore"] | 25.750157544879595number |
| $["games"][68]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -6.268751659334471number |
| $["games"][68]["expectedHomeScore"] | 19.48140588554513number |
| $["games"][68]["expectedTotal"] | 45.23156343042472number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 6.875342361411992number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.28960758639896number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -139.69271720561142number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -11.305665198147782number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -4.430322836735797number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.76856788346324number |
| $["games"][68]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.3479778157721514number |
| $["games"][68]["gameId"] | 2026_05_HOU_TENstring |
| $["games"][68]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][68]["gameday"] | 2026-10-11string |
| $["games"][68]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -24.302365157724857number |
| $["games"][68]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 11.764861839055916number |
| $["games"][68]["homeTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][68]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.29354420253883756number |
| $["games"][68]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-11T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][68]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][68]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][68]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.87475461816394number |
| $["games"][68]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.5883722426855number |
| $["games"][68]["week"] | 5number |
| $["games"][69]["awayTeam"] | INDstring |
| $["games"][69]["eloProbability"] | 0.6313032333464652number |
| $["games"][69]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.95618075099772number |
| $["games"][69]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.6431228436252856number |
| $["games"][69]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.59930359462301number |
| $["games"][69]["expectedTotal"] | 45.55548434562073number |
| $["games"][69]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -4.297692132383467number |
| $["games"][69]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 49.61392629655709number |
| $["games"][69]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][69]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][69]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 38.42747386123756number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.