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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 4751–4800 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][74]["eloProbability"] | 0.5931404230936284number |
| $["games"][74]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.45328779308479number |
| $["games"][74]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.7944622624856501number |
| $["games"][74]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.24775005557045number |
| $["games"][74]["expectedTotal"] | 45.70103784865524number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.496749373474774number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 46.68097765064903number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 10.485191797330344number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -3.9833857863115174number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.486636412836738number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 45.02239961558968number |
| $["games"][74]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.15206550552364756number |
| $["games"][74]["gameId"] | 2026_05_CHI_GBstring |
| $["games"][74]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][74]["gameday"] | 2026-10-11string |
| $["games"][74]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -17.23915123590474number |
| $["games"][74]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 18.828075760876036number |
| $["games"][74]["homeTeam"] | GBstring |
| $["games"][74]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5315488082862091number |
| $["games"][74]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-11T20:25:00Zstring |
| $["games"][74]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][74]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][74]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.34422903639446number |
| $["games"][74]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.05784666091602number |
| $["games"][74]["week"] | 5number |
| $["games"][75]["awayTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][75]["eloProbability"] | 0.410130743039576number |
| $["games"][75]["expectedAwayScore"] | 25.94068540167544number |
| $["games"][75]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -5.074893080523228number |
| $["games"][75]["expectedHomeScore"] | 20.86579232115221number |
| $["games"][75]["expectedTotal"] | 46.80647772282765number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 5.489697909467626number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 53.63154776053533number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -118.13337487491911number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -8.96683962509422number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.4771417156265905number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.91585450888306number |
| $["games"][75]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.26279334852790326number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.