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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 4801–4850 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][75]["gameId"] | 2026_05_DET_ARIstring |
| $["games"][75]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][75]["gameday"] | 2026-10-11string |
| $["games"][75]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -23.108506578913616number |
| $["games"][75]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 12.95872041786716number |
| $["games"][75]["homeTeam"] | ARIstring |
| $["games"][75]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.3225974712561872number |
| $["games"][75]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-11T20:25:00Zstring |
| $["games"][75]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][75]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][75]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.449668910566864number |
| $["games"][75]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.163286535088425number |
| $["games"][75]["week"] | 5number |
| $["games"][76]["awayTeam"] | SFstring |
| $["games"][76]["eloProbability"] | 0.6441791743329385number |
| $["games"][76]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.323603871664886number |
| $["games"][76]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 8.043151031710183number |
| $["games"][76]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.366754903375067number |
| $["games"][76]["expectedTotal"] | 46.690358775039954number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -6.973320276367247number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.938688715521344number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 48.110126919730874number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 11.444971012984745number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 4.471650736617502number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 49.31746015911237number |
| $["games"][76]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.2428641499994797number |
| $["games"][76]["gameId"] | 2026_05_SF_SEAstring |
| $["games"][76]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][76]["gameday"] | 2026-10-11string |
| $["games"][76]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -9.990462466680205number |
| $["games"][76]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 26.07676453010057number |
| $["games"][76]["homeTeam"] | SEAstring |
| $["games"][76]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7471387025185724number |
| $["games"][76]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-11T20:25:00Zstring |
| $["games"][76]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][76]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][76]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.333549962779173number |
| $["games"][76]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.047167587300734number |
| $["games"][76]["week"] | 5number |
| $["games"][77]["awayTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][77]["eloProbability"] | 0.5218647984438133number |
| $["games"][77]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.164235681121557number |
| $["games"][77]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.2107386293480773number |
| $["games"][77]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.95349705177348number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.