Matchup formulas, feature tiers and evaluation requirements. Definitions do not imply that every input is available.
Source date: 2026-08-22 · time unavailable
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5 matches · 1–5 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
hard constraints and market truth
tier
1
label
hard constraints and market truth
features
Inspect features (5)
[
"contest rules and lock semantics",
"entry-specific used-team eligibility",
"current two-sided no-vig market probability",
"observation time and freshness",
"source count and market dispersion"
]
use
Required. Missing critical values block a current recommendation.
season assignment and contest equity
tier
2
label
season assignment and contest equity
features
Inspect features (9)
[
"eight-week rolling assignment value",
"team replacement cost",
"weekly slate scarcity",
"alternate-path switching cost",
"Week 18 six-team reserve health",
"team exposure and shared-game wipeout contribution",
"ownership with source class",
"field size and contest phase",
"opponent remaining-team scarcity"
]
use
Determines when to spend or save a team and how to allocate multiple entries.
predictive football residuals
tier
3
label
predictive football residuals
features
Inspect features (11)
[
"starting quarterback status and backup delta",
"offensive pass EPA versus defensive pass EPA",
"early-down EPA and success rate mismatch",
"offensive-line continuity, especially LT and C",
"pressure rate versus pressure allowed",
"pressure without blitz versus pass protection",
"sack avoidance versus defensive sack conversion",
"explosive-pass rate differential",
"defensive EPA and success rate by pass and rush",
"injury-market gap after controlling for line movement",
"play-caller or scheme change with preseason shrinkage"
]
use
May move confidence or make a small bounded probability adjustment after avoiding double counting with the market.
conditional context
tier
4
label
conditional context
features
Inspect features (7)
[
"run-game mismatch when game script supports it",
"game total and pace as variance indicators",
"special teams and kicker reliability in close spreads",
"rest differential",
"travel distance and time-zone direction",
"weather, wind, precipitation, temperature, air quality near lock",
"late-season motivation and starter-rest regime"
]
use
Activated only when source quality and effect conditions are met. Usually confidence modifiers, not primary drivers.
shrink or reject
tier
5
label
shrink or reject
features
Inspect features (9)
[
"raw yards",
"win-loss streaks",
"head-to-head history",
"rivalry or revenge narratives",
"preseason final scores",
"blanket home-road rules",
"raw turnover margin and fumble recovery rate",
"red-zone and third-down rate without regression",
"analyst power rank used directly as a probability"
]
use
Not allowed to override calibrated market probability without demonstrated out-of-sample incremental value.
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